It turns out that Polymarket is a crystal ball, which can predict certain events with an accuracy of almost 90%, according to a dashboard compiled by the New York data scientist, Alex McCullough.
McCullough studied the historic data from Polymarket and deleted the markets with probabilities above 90% or less than 10% after the results were already known but not yet settled, to maintain the precise analysis, according to a summary of the dash dash.
The polymarket overestime slightly but systematically but systematically the probabilities of events in most ranges, potentially due to bias such as acquiescence, herd mentality, the low liquidity and the preference of participants for high -risk bets, revealed that McCullough’s research.
The longer term markets, those who ask bettors to consider a distant event, seem more precise because they include many results which are clearly improbable, which makes predictions easier, explained McCullough in an interview with The Oracle Blog of Polymarket.
McCullough gives the example of Gavin Newsom becoming president (a question with a volume of $ 54 million) in the last elections to show that the longer-term polymarket markets often include obviously predictable results, as Newsom does not clearly win, which increases the precision numbers of the platform for these long-term predictions.
On the other hand, the sporting sports markets, which have fewer extreme results such as long-term presidential candidates, and a more balanced distribution, have a clearer representation of predictive precision, according to McCullough, showing notable improvements in precision as the events take place and reveal a periodic precision.
Sports is a growing sector of Polymarket, with almost $ 4.5 billion in collective volume bet on the results of the NBA, the MLB, the Champions League and the Premier League finals, according to Data Portal Polymarket Analytics.
McCullough’s conclusions on Polymarket’s accuracy are likely to be interesting for Ottawa, where Polymarket shows that the new Liberal Party of Canada, Mark Carney, now has an important advance on his conservative rival Pierre Hairyvre, even more than what the surveys show.
