Islamabad:
Since the controversy on the construction of six channels on the Industry river, the key ally of the Muslim League of Pakistan-Nawaz (PML-N), parliamentarians from the Pakistani peoples (PPPP) party has drawn a clear line in the sand: the abandonment of the project, or risks the collapse of the federal government.
While political tensions increase between the two major parliamentary forces, where the PPPP helped PML-N to break together a government at the center, the urgent question remains: is the threat of the PPP simple political posture, or is it really ready to eliminate the catch?
Experts, for the moment, remain divided
With the PPPP and the PML -N locking horns on water rights, analysts argue that the survival of the administration of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif now depends on the negotiations of Backchannel – launched on April 20 – and the influence of powerful stakeholders behind the scenes.
The PPP has expressed strong reserves on the Canal project, which aims to meet the irrigation needs of the Green Pakistan initiative (GPI) in the Cholistan desert. These concerns have persisted since the chief minister of Punjab, Maryam Nawaz Sharif, and the chief of staff of the army (COAS), General Asim Munnir, inaugurated the project on February 15.
Since the formation of the coalition, the two parties have often engaged in what many describe as “fixed fights”, political theaters intended for public optics only on real results.
However, the latest ultimatum of the president of the PPP Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari in Hyderabad marked a notable gap in the script. He explicitly called on the government to stop the project or risk losing the support of the PPP – an explicit threat that could put the already fragile federal configuration on a knees.
The warning worked as PML-N Supremo Nawaz Sharif and Prime Minister Shehbaz quickly asked the party officials to trigger the dialogue before the situation was uncontrollable. The discussions were officially opened.
The first meeting between the two parts remains unanswered.
Experts, however, consider the PPP challenge to be more on self-preservation than the dynamics of the coalition. With his radically reduced national footprint, Sindh remains the last bastion of the party, a redoubt that he cannot afford to lose.
Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, President of Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (Pildat), and Raza Ahmad Rumi, political analyst and journalist, both believe that the betrayal of water rights could paralyze the PPP in his heart and that they cannot afford.
Mehboob noted that a party that formerly directed the Federation and the four provinces are now trapped in the Sindh. The province is the party power base, and any threat is a red line for PPP, he noted.
He noted that the PPP may or may not have initially reported its acceptance of the Cholistan Canals project.
However, the tide has since turned. The emergence of a fervent anti-channel movement in the Sindh has linked the hands of the party, which makes it difficult to provide a window of opportunity to its opponents in the Sindh to capture its last base.
“The PPP will go to a certain extent to convince PMLN and the establishment to remove or at least the channel project,” said Mehboob, adding “but if he cannot succeed, he can have the dissociation of support for the federal government”.
Rumi supported Mehboob insofar as the party initially lit the project, noting that even if it initially gave the green light to the Canals project, a U-turn was inevitable once it was snowball in a question of national identity in Sindhi.
The party made a step back on its initial position and joined the train of public activism on the issue.
That said, Rumi added a warning: despite the noise, it is unlikely that the PPP is in fact leaving the coalition in Islamabad, given its current level of comfort in terms of power sharing with the establishment and PML-N.
The PPP certainly holds the key to overthrowing this government, he said, stressing that the government needs the votes of its key ally to survive. “But it should be noted that the federal coalition was assembled by the establishment”.
“And any change would be led by them,” said the analyst.
