Political bettors on Polymarket and other platforms pay attention to Canada while the nation is heading for polls.
While the country’s 45th election is coming to an end, a contract asking the bettors to predict who will be the next Prime Minister of Canada gives the Liberal Party Mark Carney a chance of 78%, and that Pierre Hairyvre of the Conservatives has a 22%chance.
Political bettors are slightly more skeptical of the chances of winning from Carney than the ballot boxes, but both point in the same direction. A CBC public broadcaster surveys puts Carney’s chances at 89%.
A market myriad, another prediction market, gives Carney similar ratings in Polymarket.
Fanduel, a Paris authorized Paris platform only open to residents of Ontario, Canada, initially gave the Conservatives a lively and contrary advance of 70%, according to a report by the National Post. However, the chances fell online with the prediction markets, and this now gives the Liberals a chance of around 80% to win.
Unlike the American elections, there is no crypto angle in the North with the campaigns of the leaders focused on the trade war and inflation.
Too big for Grée?
An increasing story in certain internet corners is that polymarket is subject to manipulation and that its number is not reliable, criticisms that echo what has been said in the past few weeks of the US elections when the site has given Donald Trump a dominant advance while the surveys have shown a tight breed.
Critics say that the chances of hairy are suppressed and do not reflect the political feeling of the population.
However, handling prediction markets would be expensive, and there is no credible evidence that this happens even if the polymarket is prohibited in the largest province in Canada after a regulation with its securities regulator.
Data Portal Polymarket Analytics shows that the Canadian electoral contract leads the platform in an open interest, which is the total value of active and unstable bets and a good measure of market engagement.
Market data also show that the position position is quite distributed, with the largest holder of the Poilivere – no side of the contractor holding 6% of all the shares and the largest holder on the Carney side – yes holding 5%.
A bettor, which bets big on Carney with a six -digit position, which spoke in Coindesk, said that their motivations are not in favor and said that the quality of Canadian surveys made him confident that the liberals will win.
“Hairyvre needs a 7 -point survey error to win and I think that the probability of this is closer to 7% than its current market price of 23C,” Tenadome Tenadome said in Coindesk via an X DM. “The Hairy Brealer Basin seems to be largely very stupid that believes in things like China was imprisoning polls.”
Currently, the merchant with the biggest gains in the contract is “Ball-Sack” with a profit of $ 124,890, thanks to the bets on Carney. On the other side of the trade is “Biden4prez”, which has lost just over $ 98,000 – the most of all traders – paring on Hairy and against Carney.
Read more: Overview of the angle of cryptography of the Canadian elections
