Coinbase (Coin) heads for its report on the results of the first quarter on fragile ground, four Wall Street analysts expected a lack because the lull of retail trade is likely to put pressure on the most profitable commercial lines of Crypto Exchange.
The company should announce results of the first quarter Thursday after the market. Analysts provide for a profit per share (BPA) falling to $ 1.93, compared to $ 2.26 in the fourth quarter and the income falling to $ 2.1 billion against $ 2.27 billion, according to FostSet Data.
In the first quarter of the year, he declared a BPA of $ 4.40 and a turnover of $ 1.2 billion. The negotiation volume is expected to land around $ 403.8 billion compared to $ 439 billion in the fourth quarter.
JP Morgan reduced its BPA estimate to $ 1.59, citing a 10% drop in Coinbase negotiation volume and a 17% slide in the market capitalization of cryptography during the quarter. Adjusted for cryptographic asset losses, they see BPA at $ 2.39, partly supported by controlled expenses and stable subscription income.
Barclays and Compass Point see deeper problems. Barclays has reduced its revenues and forecasts from Ebitda, saying that the market has been strongly cooled since January despite the growth of the stablescoin. It weighs retail volumes at $ 69 billion, clearly below the average street estimate of $ 79.8 billion.
Compass Point, even more down, lowered the action to sell, projecting transaction income of $ 1.24 billion, 7% below consensus. He argues that Coinbase loses retail shares against decentralized grants (DEX) and warns against additional pain in the second quarter.
The popular trading platform Robinhood last week said a 13% drop in transactions based on the fourth quarter when the markets have cooled in the first three months of the year.
Rescue stablescoins?
The only area of optimism: Stablecoins.
Coinbase revenues of the USDC jumped while the market capitalization of Stablecoin increased by 42% during the quarter, helping to strengthen subscription income. Barclays estimates $ 304 million in income linked to the first trimester USDC, and even the Compass Skeptics recognize that this has helped to compensate for the drop in ignition income due to the slide in the price of the ether.
Oppenheimer has reduced its volume forecasts to $ 380 billion, compared to $ 440 billion, but noted that Coinbase won us a market share of points. It is a positive sign, but which may not have any importance if retail traders continue to sit on their hands.
There is also an increasing concern about the longer term competitive pressures. Analysts have noted that decentralized exchanges – in particular those operating on faster and cheaper blockchains like Solana and the own Coinbase base – attract retail users who seek to exchange a wider range of tokens. While the American market share of Coinbase is up, its domination as a centralized and regulated scholarship may not be sufficient to repel this change.
For the future, analysts warn that a short -term rebound in trade can be slow to materialize, in particular with retail traders often hesitating to reintegrate the market until they recover previous losses.
Coinbase shares are down 23% for the start of the year, trading at $ 198.06, while Bitcoin has increased by 3.8% since the start of the year to $ 97,023.
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