In the financial markets, making assumptions based on short -term observations is a crazy race, as important trends are developing during the months and years, not days or weeks. But as investors evaluate the role of Bitcoin in their portfolios, the events of April deserve to be analyzed in order to understand the emerging reputation of the asset as a reserve of value.
Volatility
The turbulence triggered by the announcement of President Trump’s prices on April 2 brought down the share price the next day, the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 down 4.8% and 5.4%, respectively. Bitcoin has followed suit because the VIX volatility index reaches the striking levels that the first days of COVVID and fears of the commercial reprisals were prevailing.
However, the price of Bitcoin began to recover strongly in the days following the announcement, causing its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 below 0.50, before these correlations recover again as the April 9 break on the rates brought the “Risk” mode.
Bitcoin correlations in traditional markets in April
Source: Hashdex Research with CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg data (April 01, 2025 to April 30, 2025). The 30 -day bearing correlations (considering only working days) between Bitcoin (represented by the Bitcoin reference price index of Nasdaq) and the tradfi indices.
This short -term observation is important because it supports the changing nature of how investors perceive Bitcoin. While some still categorize Bitcoin as a high “risk” asset, institutional feeling begins to reflect a more nuanced understanding. Bitcoin recovered faster than the S&P 500 in the 60 days of the cocvid epidemic, the invasion of Ukraine Russia and the American banking crisis in 2023, events in which he demonstrated resilience and a profile were aligning more and more on that of gold during stress.
These decoupling periods establish a model where Bitcoin displays its antifragile properties, allowing recipients to protect capital during systemic events, while exceeding the performance of shares, obligations and long -term gold.
Bitcoin vs traditional active, 5 -year yields
Source: CaseBitcoin, return data from May 1, 2020 to April 30, 2025 (casebitcoin.com)
The path to digital gold
Perhaps more convincing than Bitcoin longer term yields are long-term wallet effects. Even a small Bitcoin allowance in a traditional bond portfolio of 60% / 40% would have improved risk adjusted at risk in 98% of three -year periods in the last decade. And these yields adjusted to the risk are much higher on longer deadlines, which suggests that the volatility of the Bitcoin of positive yields more than offset of short -term samples.
It could still be premature to claim that bitcoin has been universally accepted as “digital gold”, but that the story, supported by its response to geopolitical events, is gaining momentum. The combination of fixed food, liquidity, accessibility and Immunity of Bitcoin to the interference of the central bank gives it properties that no traditional active can reproduce. This should be attractive to any, large or small investor, looking for the diversification of the portfolio and the preservation of long -term wealth.
