Karachi:
This started with a Pahalgam attack – deep in the occupied territory of cashmere – has since extended to a dangerous escalation between the two nuclear weapons in South Asia, after India launched strikes not caused in several Pakistani cities. While New Delhi is attached to revenge, analysts argue that his actions arise less strategic necessity than reckless political theater and a calculated deviation of the blame.
None of this surprises those who saw the mercury regularly get up between New Delhi and Islamabad in the best part of eight decades. What many analysts find predictable is India’s reflexive response to such incidents – an immediate and unshakeable attribution of the blame in Pakistan, generally without offering substantial evidence or considering alternative explanations.
Under the political posture, however, the recent attack on Pahalgam reveals the same security and intelligence vulnerabilities seen in Pulwama six years ago. The aggression did not take place in a distant or without law area, but in a strongly militarized area, firmly under Indian occupation and surrounded by surveillance. Media reports indicate that the attackers worked for an extended period, questioning the victims before executing them. If these reports are correct, the attackers showed remarkable confidence, carrying out their actions without any fear of interruption.
Losing no time, the government of the Bharatiya Janata party, led by Narendra Modi, reduced its war rhetoric against Islamabad which releases the same incendiary calls to the annihilation of Pakistan which followed the attack on Pulwama – linguistic critics serve more political theater than credible deterrence.
“India’s approach to Pakistan remains unchanged in these two incidents – the message is clear – Pakistan is still to blame,” said Dr. Claude Rakisits, a Geo -Strategic analyst based in Canberra.
He added: “The Indian government, both at the national level and in its outdoor messaging, depicts Pakistan as the epicenter of terrorism. To the international community – American, allies, the UN – they say – Pakistan is terrorist -central. They did it in 2019, again in 2025.”
Even in this last attack, noted Rakisits, India has provided any substantial evidence connecting Pakistan to the incident. “But that did not prevent them from retaliating. Coherence lies in the fact that, at the national level, India is quick to put the blame on Pakistan,” he said.
When asked why India continues to blame Pakistan, Rakisits said: “The key motivation is to divert attention from what is really going on in cashmere. Take the first Balakot strike – what triggered this? The revocation of article 370 in August 2019.
Rakisits, who proposed an unusual cashmere referendum – a little to the dismay of New Delhi explained: “The objective of India is to divert international attention from cashmere, where political prisoners are locked up without trial, where there is no free press. All this in the so -called democracy of the world of the world.”
“And let’s not forget the other objective: to distract the world of Indian post-2019 Indian policies in India in cashmere, establishing non-cooked there to dilute demographic data in the region. All of this is part of the same strategy,” he warned.
Narrative control
Since the revocation of article 370 – The constitutional provision of India which formerly granted cashmere has occupied a measure of autonomy – Prime Minister Narendra Modi has worked to project an image of order, development and integration into the disputed region of Himalayas. His government described this decision as a daring step towards democracy and prosperity in the territory, which has long requested the independence of India. However, as Dr. Claude Rakisits observes, the promise has always been slim: “Before repealing article 370, Modi and his government have laid the foundations. They said that it would bring democracy, development and progress to cashmere. But clearly, that did not happen.
For years, this account was uncomfortable at the top of a region that many human rights groups now describe as the largest outdoor prison in the world, its supervised streets, muffled dissent and suspended freedoms. But the facade of normality broke with the deadly assault last month in Pahalgam, a picturesque city of the occupied valley. It was the worst attack of this type in a quarter of a century, exposing not only a deep security waste, but also the fragile nature of the claims of control of India.
“This last attack proves that things are not normal in cashmere, all that” normal “means there,” said Rakisits. “For Modi, it’s deeply humiliating. This exposes reality. This is why he was under pressure to answer – to cover this humiliation.”
Deliberate escalation
For decades, India and Pakistan have respected a tacit understanding: while the skirmishes along the control line were frequent and, to a certain extent, tolerated, the international border – in particular through Punjab and Sindh – has remained a red line.
“By hitting Punjab in the depths, India has crossed this threshold,” said Rakisits, adding that Modi’s injured political pride left him little room for maneuvering.
“The attack on April 22 was a humiliation – it broke the illusion that cashmere is” normal “. It must have answered.
The strikes of India in the early hours of May 7 killed 31 people through Punjab and Kashmir administered by Pakistan, including a three -year -old girl, and injured 57 others. Since then, a wave of reports from Pakistan has suggested that its forces have shot 25 Indian drones that have violated its airspace. What started with the attack on New Delhi has now brought the region closer to the precipice of nuclear calamity.
Military humiliation
While New Delhi was trying to launch his strikes on Pakistani soil as a show of strength after the attack on Pahalgam, the story began to decline as the events took place. For hours, India remained silent on Islamabad mounting reports that several Indian jets had been slaughtered. It was not until later that he confirmed the loss of two planes – although Pakistan claimed to have shot five, a figure still challenged by New Delhi. Defense analysts argue that, whatever the specific number, the episode has brought a tactical blow to India, putting Islamabad a symbolic advantage in the ongoing story of the conflict.
“What happened is almost beyond belief,” said Rakisits. “India would have lost between three and five planes, including gusts, among the most advanced and costly fighter planes of its fleet. For Indian air force, it is nothing less than a debacle. It feeds an increasing perception of operational vulnerability, especially after the loss of a jet in 2019.”
The expert in South Asian geopolitics noted that the implications extend far beyond the subcontinent. “This is exponentially more harmful to Prime Minister Modi. The quad including the United States, Japan, Australia and India – can now question India’s reliability as a military counterweight to China. After such a performance against a much smaller opponent, these doubts are not unresolved.”
“India has recognized the loss of several jets – Pakistan, on the other hand, claims to have undergone any loss. In terms of perception and messaging, it is a clear victory for Islamabad,” said Rakissits.
Delays vs retained
From a broader perspective, Pakistan’s latest demonstration gave India an obsessive feeling of deja vu – evoking the events of 2019, when Islamabad made an Indian pilot captured after having shot down, grabbing the moral. This time too, India has undergone losses in the air – involving some of its most advanced planes – in a blow which, according to analysts, decreases more deeply than the arithmetic of the battlefield. The headlines moved in a few hours – from “India strikes Pakistan” to “Pakistan Downs Indian Jets” – a reversal which, according to some experts, inflicted political damage to Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a delicate moment.
According to rakisits, Pakistan “is now looking in the game”, with key international actors, especially the United States and China, probably urging restraint. “If I was general Asim Munir, I would stop now,” he said. “Pakistan seems strong and measured. Putting other risks of losing this advantage and dragging the region in chaos.” But if Islamabad chose to knock again, the consequences could be serious. “Modi would have no choice but to answer,” warned Rakisits. “And this is where South Asia could find itself rushing towards large -scale conflicts.”
