Calm on the oil market according to the American air strike on Iranian nuclear sites destroyed the bears forecasts which predicted a slide in the Bitcoin price
. In this spirit, traders can turn to the main events of the week that could affect the markets.
The testimony of the semi-annual monetary policy of the president of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the Congress is probably the main event.
Powell will probably be token by members of the Republican Party for not having reduced interest rates and “costing the country of hundreds of billions of dollars”, as President Donald Trump said several times in his social posts of truth. Powell, however, should repeat the independence of the Fed and the path depending on the data for rates.
Traders will closely watch Powell on the interest rate trajectory, given the backdrop of the recent comments from the Fed governor, the governor of Trump, Governor Christopher Waller that interest rates could be reduced in July.
“With the pricing by the well anchored future inflation market, the first cracks emerging on the job market and the housing activity are obviously weak, there are reasons for the Fed to consider adopting a change of domination in the FOMC meeting in July and to guide towards a cup in September – a path already at the price of the American trade market,” said Chris Weston, responsible for research in Pepperson, X.
Doubling advice could cause more risks on the financial markets, which has given the BTC, which was mainly more than $ 100,000 throughout the recent climbing of conflicts in the Middle East.
The markets expect the Fed to deliver two 25 -point reductions this year, but the catch is not unanimous /
“We continue to think that the clarity of the history of inflation – whether the prices are a punctual shock or if they cause pressure on more sustained inflation – may not come before the FOMC meeting in December, which means that we will see a single drop in rate this year,” Ing analysts said on Friday in a note to customers. “However, if the job market continues to weaken, it may well be a cup of 50 bp.”
Core Pce
In terms of data, the basic personal consumer expenses (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, provided for the release of Friday, is the release of a marquee.
According to Pepperstone, consensus is that the data show an increase of 0.1% per month in May, resulting in an annualized growth rate of 2.6% and an annualized rate of three months of 1.6%.
The expectations of a benign increase of 0.1% support bets decreasing Fed rates; However, according to ING, the inflationary impact of Trump prices should start from July.
The 90 -day Trump break on reciprocal prices, announced in early April, is expected to expire on July 9, after which the heavy prices of the “Liberation Day” take effect.
So far, the president has concluded an agreement with the United Kingdom and has announced a commercial framework with China. Beijing has not yet signed the agreement and the European Union remains silent.
The tensions of Iran are not yet completed
Although the oil market is calm for the moment, Iran could inflict damage even without closing the Hormuz Strait, a trade route which carries about a fifth of world oil.
By constantly threatening the closure of the strait alone, Iran could increase maritime insurance costs, which has finally increased oil prices.
The cost to ensure a ship for the trip via the Hormuz Strait has already gone from 20 cents a barrel to 80, said a report by the South China Morning Post, citing the Xclusiv ships based in Athens.
“By planting enough belief so that they can disturb this key logistics channel, maritime costs could increase the point of knowing that it would have a significant impact on the supply of crude and gas,” noted Weston.
