Bitcoin increased to $ 109,343 on July 9, up 0.8% compared to the previous 24 hours, according to the Technical Analysis model of Coindesk Research.
In a social post at 10:00 am, Trump said that the American federal rate of federal funds is “at least 3 too high points”, referring to a basic point of 300 (3%) cut. He argued that the delay in such a decision requires an annual burden of $ 360 billion on refinancing costs. In the 30 minutes, the BTC began to increase regularly while merchants seemed to a price in the short -term implications of such a dramatic change in policy, in particular the potential for renewed liquidity and feeling of risk.
In a full thread on X, Kobeissi’s macro-analysts provided detailed ventilation of Trump’s claim. According to their analysis, total payments of American interests have already reached $ 1.2 billion in the last 12 months – equivalent to $ 3.3 billion per day.
They noted that if Trump’s mathematics assumes that $ 360 billion in percentage of 36 billions of dollars in national debt, only about 29 billions of dollars are publicly held and are affected by rate changes. As part of more realistic hypotheses, they believe that a complete reduction of 300 basic points applied gradually could reduce interest in interest by approximately $ 174 billion in the first year, potentially totaling 2.5 billions of dollars over five years if 20% of the debt is refined each year.
Despite these potential savings, the report warned that the wider economic consequences of a 3% drop would be historic. No drop in the Fed rate in modern history has exceeded 100 basic points – even during the 2008 crisis or the emergency move of March 2020. The implementation of a reduction of 300 base points outside a recession, in an economy increasing to 3.8% per year, would be unprecedented.
Kobeissi’s letter warned that such a decision would probably revive inflation greater than 5%, would trigger a sharp drop in the US dollar – potentially exceeding 10% – and cause an increase in housing prices due to a sharp drop in mortgage rates. The asset markets would probably join in the short term, the gold providing a touch of $ 5,000, oil greater than $ 80 a barrel and the S&P 500 violation of 7,000. However, they stressed that the long -term consequences would be destabilizing without major reduction in the American government.
For Bitcoin, the implications are clear: a sudden drop in interest rates would be considered as a monetary stimulus, probably accelerating capital entries in hard assets and alternative value reserves such as BTC. While analysts continue to debate the likelihood of such cuts, the immediate market reaction suggests that investors are positioned for rising risks.
Strengths of technical analysis
- The BTC price has changed sharply within 30 minutes of Trump’s TRUTH social position at 10:00 am.
- Consolidation persisted earlier in the day, but the purchase volume increased significantly after Trump’s price comments.
- Resistance tested at the price close to $ 109,761, with higher stockings forming $ 108,500, indicating an upward structure.
- Bollinger’s bands compress at their tightest levels of this cycle, historically a pending break signal.
- Institutional accumulation remains visible via volume clusters near support areas around $ 108,500 to $ 108,600.
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