The copper/gold ratio is widely followed as a macro indicator of economic dynamics and investor risk appetite. Historically, it has shown a notable relationship with Bitcoin according to SuperBitcoinBro.
Copper is strongly tied to industrial demand and tends to perform well during periods of economic expansion. Gold, on the other hand, is a defensive asset that typically outperforms in times of greater uncertainty and slower growth.
When the ratio between the two increases, it indicates a risk-friendly environment, while a decreasing ratio indicates risk aversion.
The main peaks in the ratio, observed in 2013, 2017 and 2021, coincided with cyclical peaks in bitcoin prices. These periods reflect strong expectations for global growth and high speculative risk taking on assets.
However, the ratio’s behavior after prolonged declines has been more significant for Bitcoin. A reversal in the ratio has often preceded large bitcoin rallies, particularly when they align with bitcoin halving cycles.
Bitcoin halvings, which reduce payments to miners by 50%, occur approximately every four years and tighten supply. Historically, they have acted as a catalyst for long-term bull markets.
During the fourth Bitcoin halving, in April 2024, the copper/gold ratio was still falling. This dynamic has since changed. The ratio now stands near 0.00136 after bottoming in October around 0.00116.
At the same time, copper prices are above $6 per pound, an all-time high, while gold is trading near $4,455 per ounce, also near its all-time high. Over the past three months, copper has gained 18% and gold 14%.
If copper’s strength reflects improving growth expectations rather than simple supply constraints, the resulting signal risk could support a Bitcoin rally in 2026.
