PUBLISHED on November 30, 2025
ISLAMABAD:
Three isolated but deeply related events this week cleared the blur on the national economic front that the country was on the path to sustainable development when top policymakers admitted that the growth plan was either missing or insufficient to bear the burden of unemployment reaching its highest level in two decades.
The sad outcome of these three events, which occurred within the radius of the red zone, was already known to many. Amidst these events, an article beautifully described the fact that more than 615,000 Pakistanis went abroad in just 10 months in search of jobs while hundreds more were taken off planes.
This year’s Pakistan Business Council’s annual economic dialogue served as a grand platform to find out what policymakers from both civil and military institutions were thinking. Two equally frank and direct speeches in the space of 24 hours from the same platform shattered the castle built on the fragile mantra that Pakistan was on the path to irreversible economic development and that the International Monetary Fund’s 25th bailout program would be the last.
Central bank governor Jameel Ahmad, with his usual calm, delivered the message that Pakistan’s current growth model simply cannot sustain a country of more than 250 million people.
Analysts have long argued that the current economic approach relies on rosy numbers, ignoring deep-rooted and much-needed structural reforms, to the detriment of souls. The numbers-based approach aimed to show an improvement in the fiscal situation by overburdening existing taxpayers and building foreign exchange reserves through market purchases, rather than by increasing exports. This consolidation has had serious consequences on people and businesses.
But the governor was frank enough to say that “the indefinite continuation of stabilization policies is neither desirable nor sustainable.”
Pakistan’s economic growth has followed a steady downward trend, from an average of 3.9% over the past 30 years to 3.5% over the past 20 years and then to 3.4% over the past five years. Please note, the country needs an economic growth rate above 6% simply to maintain the pace of welcoming new arrivals to the job market.
The final punch was delivered by the general. In his address to Pakistan’s top businessmen, the national coordinator of the Special Investment Facilitation Council said the country’s “growth plan was lacking”. He urged all stakeholders to agree on a model of export-led economic growth that can end reliance on protection and subsidies.
General Sarfraz’s statement on the absence of any growth plan also raises many questions about the effectiveness of the multiple economic plans followed by the government. These include the IMF’s three-year Extended Financing Facility, Stefen Dercons’ economic plan, Ahsan Iqbal’s Uraan Pakistan, the World Bank’s 10-year plan, in addition to Mackenzie’s interventions.
General Sarfraz’s view that a consumption-driven, debt-driven growth model was a flawed approach is valid, as it has kept the economy uncompetitive and conventional.
Results of stabilization policies
Pakistanis have suffered and the serious suffering is now officially recognized. This week’s Labor Force Survey, released after a four-year gap and also under pressure from the IMF, tells the harsh story of common Pakistan.
The survey indicates that Pakistan’s unemployment rate reached a 21-year high of 7.1 percent in the last fiscal year. The results showed that the unemployment rate which was 6.3% in 2021 increased to 7.1% in the financial year 2024-25.
The official report showed that the unemployment rate of 7.1% was the highest since 2003-04, when the ratio was recorded at 7.7%. Since then, the unemployment rate has remained between 5.3% and 6.9%. In the 2018-19 financial year, the unemployment rate was 6.9%.
It is interesting to note, however, that out of a total population of almost 180 million working-age people, almost 118 million, or two out of three people, were unpaid employees performing household services such as cleaning, fetching water, looking after children and raising chickens.
Nearly a quarter of unpaid workers were engaged in household work, 18.7% were engaged in animal husbandry, 23% were caring for children, 7% were fetching water for the house, and another 7.1% were busy raising chickens at home.
Even though these people are also included in the unemployed category, the results are appalling.
Of the total 5.9 million unemployed, 4.6 million, or 77.5 percent, were literate, which should be another major concern for policymakers. Literate people are leaving the country in search of work, and blacksmiths cannot build a nation of 250 million people.
The survey indicates that almost a million people with educational qualifications were unemployed. According to details, the highest number of unemployed people were in the age group of 15 to 29 years, followed by the age group of 15 to 24 years.
The provincial distribution of unemployment also tells another interesting story. The highest unemployment rate of 9.6% was recorded in KP, followed by 7.3% in Punjab, 5.5% in Balochistan and 5.3% in Sindh, the lowest among all the federating units.
Pakistan’s average economic growth rate remained below 3% for a long period and the economy was not creating enough jobs to absorb new market entrants. The survey showed that every year, 3.5 million people entered the job market.
Civilians do not admit their faults and once again blame the IMF.
According to Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal, the IMF’s stagnation program has brought misery on top of the impact of climate change. But it was his party’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, who signed the agreement with the IMF.
The labor force participation rate, which expresses the employed active population and the unemployed as a percentage of the population over 10 years old, increased from 44.9% to 46.3%. The survey results indicated that the working population increased from 71.8 million in 2020-21 to 83.1 million in 2024-25.
Employees make up the largest group at 43.5%, followed by own-account workers 36.1%, contributing family workers 19.1% and employers 1.3%. If contributing workers are also excluded from the list of employees, the results are more worrying.
Nearly half of female workers work hard as family workers and almost half of male workers work as employees.
Unpaid domestic and care work
The report reveals that a significant proportion of those surveyed carry out domestic and care work, with 45.4 million women involved in household chores, 32.1 million in livestock operations and 20 million in care responsibilities, highlighting their vital role in these areas.
In the absence of a growth framework and a growth rate capable of creating jobs for all, Pakistanis live in the countryside.
Pakistan’s labor exports to international markets reached 615,055 by the end of October 2025, with an average of 61,505 workers leaving the country every month, according to official data released by the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment (BEOE). In comparison, 727,381 Pakistani workers moved abroad in 2024, representing an average monthly flow of 60,615 people.
An Express PK Press Club report says these record outflows mask the growing challenges faced by workers seeking opportunities abroad. Despite growing demand in Gulf markets, thousands of Pakistanis continue to struggle with complex visa requirements, stricter documentation rules, frequent refusals and increased airport offloading, obstacles that often turn already desperate economic migration into a harrowing ordeal.
It further says that deteriorating economic conditions in Pakistan are pushing record numbers of people abroad, but those seeking livelihoods face increasing obstacles at each stage of the migration journey. The visa and documentation processes remain intimidating, with applicants facing confusing requirements, inconsistent review, and frequent refusals.
Load shedding at airports has also intensified, disproportionately targeting people under 30 and leading to devastating financial losses as money borrowed for tickets, visas and agent fees, often amounting to hundreds of thousands of rupees, cannot be recovered. Skills mismatch compounds the problem, as weak CVs, generic job applications, lack of certifications, poor English proficiency and limited technical training hamper competitiveness in the Gulf and European markets.
Economic House Divided
At a time when the government must respond to the economic and human crisis, its house is divided. Internal reports suggest that there is a strong element of dissatisfaction with the performance of the economic team. The blame game has begun; the scapegoat is sought for a sacrifice.
Due to a divided house, the government has been unable to erect an effective defensive wall against growing criticism over the results of the Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment report. For now, the Finance Ministry has remained silent and the Prime Minister’s Office would now likely ask Deputy Finance Minister Bilal Azhar Kayani to present his defense in Parliament.
