Hello, Asia. Here’s what’s making news on the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top news stories during U.S. business hours and insight into market movements and analysis. For a detailed look at US markets, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Will Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, be pardoned?
Punters on Polymarket say that’s far from the case, but the odds jumped 5 percentage points to 12% after Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao was pardoned by Trump on Thursday US time. In Kalshi, the increase was more significant, where a contract seeking a pardon from the SBF increased by 9 percentage points to 16%.
Earlier this year, SBF launched a media charm offensive with an appearance on Tucker Carlson’s podcast as part of a broader effort to reshape its public image and lay the groundwork for a possible presidential pardon.
The former FTX CEO has leaned on conservative media and claims he was punished for supporting Republicans, while his parents quietly court allies in President Donald Trump’s circle in hopes of winning pardon for their son’s 25-year prison sentence.
Although the chances of SBF receiving a pardon are currently low, Polymarket traders were caught off guard by Trump’s decision to grant CZ a pardon.
For most of the contract’s duration, the chances of obtaining a pardon hovered between 20% and 40%, signaling widespread skepticism that any clemency would arrive.
As accurate as research on prediction markets shows, they sometimes miss things by underestimating the probabilities of outcomes. Maybe they’re doing the same thing with SBF, because a surprise pardon would be the kind of final twist The altruists – the upcoming Netflix series about the collapse of FTX – the writers would be deemed too far-fetched, until it happened.
Market movement:
BTC: Bitcoin rose 2.7% to around $110,700 on Thursday, rebounding from Wednesday’s decline as markets recovered ahead of Friday’s September inflation report.
ETFs: Ether is trading near $3,850 as analysts point to a potential Wyckoff reaccumulation phase, with growing institutional demand fueling speculation of a breakout to $8,000 to $10,000 later this cycle.
Gold: Gold is trading around $4,126, up nearly 50% this year after hitting a record above $4,000, as geopolitical tensions, Fed policy uncertainty and strong central bank buying drive demand, although Morgan Stanley warns that high prices could slow jewelry and hoarding purchases, although it raises its forecast for 2026 at $4,400.
Nikkei 225: Markets in the Asia-Pacific region rose on Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.78%, after the White House confirmed Trump-Xi talks next week.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Fireblocks acquires cryptographic authentication startup Dynamic, completing its “custody to consumer” offering (The Block)
- Alt5 Sigma suspends CEO Peter Tassiopoulos, appoints Jonathan Hugh as interim leader (CoinDesk)
- Trezor Unveils Safe 7 “Quantum-Ready” Hardware Wallet (Decrypt)
