Bank of America’s 2026 market outlook paints a picture of strong global growth, driven by investments in AI, but warns that volatility could increase as investors begin to understand the technology’s full impact on the economy.
The bank’s global research team expects U.S. GDP to grow 2.4% year-on-year through the end of 2026, above consensus, driven by business investment, fiscal stimulus and recent rate cuts. Chinese growth is also expected to exceed expectations, with forecasts of 4.7% for 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.
But the most determining factor in the bank’s forecasts is artificial intelligence.
Increased spending on AI is already boosting GDP and BofA doesn’t see a bubble yet. “We are optimistic about the two most influential economies,” said Candace Browning, head of global research at BofA. “Concerns about a looming AI bubble are overblown. » According to the report, AI-related capital investments are expected to increase further next year, supporting what some economists believe could become a new investment cycle.
Bitcoin miners benefited from the AI boom in 2025, as growing demand for high-performance computing drove up the value of their infrastructure. Several publicly traded mining companies have reported an increase in revenue this year, not only from mining, but also from leasing data center capacity to AI companies in need of power-hungry GPUs.
IREN (IREN) is up 337.15% year to date, while Cipher Mining (CIFR) is trading up almost 300%. TeraWulf (WULF) is up 190% over the same period. The gains came even as Bitcoin failed to make a convincing comeback this year, continuing to trade around the $90,000 zone.
Indeed, markets are moving from a consumption-led recovery to one driven by investment spending, infrastructure and productivity. If this shift holds, it could have implications beyond traditional stocks and into areas such as digital infrastructure, blockchain, and data monetization – areas where crypto projects have staked their claim.
Nevertheless, the bank foresees turbulence ahead. As investors and policymakers gain a clearer picture of how AI affects inflation, labor markets and supply chains, financial markets could experience abrupt changes. BofA cautions that the current K-shaped recovery, where some sectors are soaring while others lag, adds complexity to this outlook.
This divide could widen if AI boosts productivity in the tech and finance sectors while leaving slower sectors behind. Result: a two-speed economy, more difficult to manage with traditional tools. For markets, this raises the risk of mispricing and sudden revaluations.
Emerging markets could benefit in the short term, especially if the US dollar weakens and oil prices remain low. BofA notes that these regions are expected to perform better in 2026, helped by global monetary easing. For some developing countries that have abandoned existing infrastructure in favor of digital systems, growing demand for AI could create new openings for alternative technologies.
The tone of the report, however, remains cautiously optimistic. With two Fed cuts planned in 2026 and fiscal policy still dynamic, the economic context remains favorable, at least for the moment.
In a year where copper prices are rising due to supply constraints and fiscal expansion, and the S&P’s earnings are expected to grow 14% despite moderate price increases, the market appears ripe for change. Whether AI becomes a driver of productivity or a source of instability could be one of the defining questions of the next twelve months.
And in this debate, cryptography – particularly in its more infrastructure-focused forms – may have a role to play, even if it is not yet at the center of the conversation.
