Six Polymarket accounts earned around $1.2 million after correctly betting that the United States would strike Iran on February 28, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.
In an article on walked just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities. The accounts have had no activity beyond these predictions.
The strikes followed a televised speech by US President Donald Trump announcing what he called “major combat operations”, targeting the country’s ballistic, naval and nuclear infrastructure. The attack saw the price of Bitcoin fall while Hyperliquid oil futures rose.
A Polymarket account listed by Bubblemaps purchased more than 560,000 “Yes” shares at about 10.8 cents each, a position that netted nearly $560,000 after the market resolved at $1. Another account bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, making a six-figure profit. The six profiles were created in February, according to Polymarket data.
Trading volume on the Feb. 28 contract reached nearly $90 million, part of the more than $529 million wagered in markets tied to strike dates since December.
Bubblemaps has released a visual map showing the six wallets grouped together and funded by similar paths.
Insider trading investigations
The trades come as U.S. regulators consider how to police the activities of insiders in prediction markets. This week, rival platform Kalshi said it had suspended and fined two users for insider trading, including a visual effects editor for MrBeast’s “Beast Games” who allegedly traded on knowledge of the show’s results.
Kalshi, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contracts marketplace, said it has investigated about 200 cases and has more than a dozen active investigations.
The CFTC issued an advisory noting the enforcement actions and warned that insider trading on event contracts could violate U.S. law. Chairman Mike Selig called the exchanges “the first line of defense.” Kalshi banned the employee for two years and fined him more than $20,000. In another case, a political candidate was penalized for betting on his own race.
More recently, Polymarket traders appeared to engage in insider trading in a market on the basis of insider trading itself. Blockchain detective ZachXBT announced last week that he would release the results of an investigation into a crypto platform, which turned out to be Axiom, whose employees he claimed were using non-public information to trade.
News of the impending investigation, however, led to the creation of a Polymarket contract on which the company would be named. It was clear to some which company was under investigation, with Lookonchain identifying 12 wallets that were betting heavily on Axiom before the revelation.
