On October 30 (UTC), analysts pointed to long-term trend tests, crowd fear, and an early support zone, while CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model showed more intense trading and a narrow range near support.
Analyst comments
Altcoin Daily pointed out that it is common in bull markets for Bitcoin to retest the 50-week moving average, placing that long-term guide around $103,000; a “retest” simply means that price returns to a widely watched trendline to see if buyers intervene again.
Santiment said the drop toward $107,000 on Oct. 30 triggered an increase in social media posts calling for prices below $100,000. In his chart, the blue bars indicate results from around $50,000 to $100,000, and the red bars follow calls from $150,000 to $200,000; The caption notes that retail fear is at its highest level since the October 10 crypto crash and claims that markets often move against crowd expectations.
CoinDesk senior analyst Omkar Godbole wrote that $97,000 “appears to be the first support.” Its chart draws a broad consolidation with a lower boundary pointing towards $90,000, which is why it marks this $97,000 region as a place where declines have stopped previously.
Technical Analysis Highlights
- Performance and Correlation: Up 0.98% to $107,247 over 24 hours, with an outperformance of just 0.78 percentage points over the benchmark CoinDesk Index (CD5), indicating that Bitcoin has largely tracked the market.
- Path and Range: Earlier weakness led to a decline from $111,909 to $107,804 (around 4.0%, range of $4,497). The stronger leg ran from $110,826 to an intraday low of $108,048.
- Biggest sales burst: The biggest wave printed 31,143 bitcoins traded (around 185% of the 24-hour average).
- Compression Zone: Price oscillated between $107,650 and $108,225, creating a narrow band just above $107,000.
- Wider Band Referenced: Our model’s technical analysis cites $110,000 to $117,800 as part of a strategic repositioning rather than a panic.
Models and positioning
- Compression near a bottom: A narrow band around $107,000 to $108,000 often indicates that the market is catching its breath while buyers and sellers reset.
- Distribution versus Accumulation: Above-trend activity alongside long-term holder selling suggests that supply has responded to demand to strengthen, which may limit rallies until they are absorbed.
- Overhead pushback: Past pushbacks around $111,650 and $112,000-$113,000 show where sellers have been active.
Support vs resistance: the map
- Support: $107,400 to $108,000 short term; the 200-day moving average near $109,000 is a reference level.
- Resistance: $111,650 first, then $113,600; an earlier pullback had also appeared between $112,000 and $113,000.
Volume read
- Overall: 60.5% above the seven-day average for the day as a whole.
- Heaviest bar: 31,143 bitcoins (around 185% of the 24-hour average) during the strong selling wave, which corresponds to distribution pressure.
- Range Participation: High but more stable impressions during the squeeze band indicate positioning rather than a new trend.
Objectives and risk framing
- If resistance is reclaimed: A sustained move above $111,650 points to checkpoints around $115,800 to $117,500.
- If the bottom breaks: A break below $107,400 risks extending towards the $102,000-$104,000 demand zones highlighted as prior accumulation zones.
- Tactical Focus: With a tight range and mixed flows, many traders are waiting for a sharp move from $107,000 to $108,000 or a decisive recovery above $111,650 before leaning further one way or the other.
Disclaimer: Portions of this article were generated with the help of AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and compliance. our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk Comprehensive AI Policy.
