Altcoins are gathering as a “complacent” BTC points to repressed volatility

By Omkar Godbole (all the time and unless otherwise indicated)

Investors always run money in altcoins, raising evaluations for ETH, Ray, ENA, MKR and other tokens while leaving Bitcoin (BTC) little changed above $ 100,000.

While the largest cryptocurrency by market value only exceeds 7% of the achievement of a new summit, its implicit or expected volatility of 30-day options, represented by the Delibit Dvol, has been hovering near the lowest level since June 2024.

This type of calm generally precedes large movements. Georgii Verbitskii, market analyst and founder of Tymio, an application of crypto investors said the best: “Implicit volatility options are extremely low, the market does not seem to believe in strong movements, and the pricing of options of 1 to 3 months is always inexpensive. This type of complacency often precedes a big blow.”

BTC could quickly pierce $ 115,000, said Verbitskii, noting that “if the liquidity thesis is valid – where global liquidity supports Bitcoin – we could see this escape in May.” Just to remind you, Bitcoin reached a record of around $ 109,000 in January.

However, the market faces potential opposite winds. For example, the US Senate has its last opportunity to adopt the Bipartite Engineering Act, a bill presented in February which calls on issuers to support digital currencies with safe reserves and to report them monthly or to deal with penalties. The bill could not move forward during a recent vote. According to the rules of the Senate, another failure will kill the bill unless all senators accept to reconsider, according to Tagus Capital.

In addition, the SEC in the United States has delayed a decision on Tuesday on the advisability of authorizing redemptions in kind for the Bitcoin Bitcoin exchange fund while it requests comments.

In other news, Defu Development Corp. bought 172,670 soil worth approximately $ 23.6 million, bringing its Total Treasury Holdings to more than $ 100 million.

It is less common, with more companies that are heading to Bitcoin: an update of the company focused on Bitcoin stresses: “Thousands of companies in all sectors use Bitcoin to compensate for inflation and develop their treasure.” Stay vigilant!

What to look at

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • May 14, 3 p.m.: National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina inflation data in April.
    • Mom inflation rate is. 3.1% against Plan. 3.7%
    • Yoy inflation rate is. 47.7% against Prev. 55.9%
  • May 15, 8 am: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics publishes retail data from Mars.
    • Retail sale Maman is. 1% against prev. 0.5%
    • Retail sales Yoy is. -0.5% against prev. 1.5%
  • May 15, 8:30 am: The American Labor Statistics Bureau publishes Inflation Inflation Data from April producers.
    • PPI Core Mom is. 0.3% against prev. -0.1%
    • Core Ppi Yoy is. 3.1% against Plan. 3.3%
    • Ppi Mom is. 0.2% against prev. -0.4%
    • PPI Yoy is. 2.5% against Plan. 2.7%
  • May 15, 8:30 am: US Census Bureau publishes retail data from April.
    • Retail sale Maman is. 0% against planned. 1.5%
    • Retail sales Yoy prev. 4.9%
  • May 15, 8:30 am: The US Labor Department publishes data insurance data for the closed week on May 10.
    • Initial complaints on unemployment is. 230K against prev. 228K
  • May 15, 8:40 am: The president of the Fed, Jerome H. Powell, will give a speech (“Revue du Cadre”) in Washington. Livestream link.
• Gains (Estimates based on facts)
  • May 14: Bitfarms (bitf), pre-commercialization
  • May 14: Iren (Iren), post-market
  • May 15: Digital Bit (BTBT), post-market
  • May 15: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market
  • May 15: Holdings Fold (FLD), post-commercialization
  • May 15: Kulr Technology Group (Kulr), post-commercialization
  • May 28: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market

Token events

• Governance votes and calls
  • UNISWAP DAO votes a proposal to finance the integration of the UNISWAP V4 on Ethereum in Oku and to add Unichain on OKU in order to improve the migration of uniswap range and liquidity to the V4. The vote ends on May 18
  • May 14, 11:30 am: Jupiter organize a jup rally.
  • May 15 at 11 am: Guild games to welcome a session of the community community T1 2025 Ask me anything (AMA).
  • May 15, 10 am: Moca Network to host a Discord Townhall session discussing the network updates.
  • May 21, 6 p.m.: Theta Network to host an Ask Me Anything session in a live flow.
• Unlocking
  • May 15: Starknet (Strk) to unlock 4.09% of its supply in circulation worth $ 23.53 million.
  • May 15: SEI (SEI) to unlock 1.09% of its food in circulation worth $ 14.22 million.
  • May 16: immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.35% of its food in circulation worth $ 17.8 million.
  • May 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.95% of its food in circulation worth $ 39.06 million.
  • May 17: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.4% of its food in circulation worth $ 42.84 million.
• Token launches
  • May 15: Rize (Rize) to list on Kraken.
  • May 16: Galxe (Gal), Littentry (lit), the mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (Orn) and Parsiq (PRQ) to be radiated from Coinbase.

Conferences

Coindesk consensus takes place in Toronto from May 14 to 16. Use the code’s day book and save 15% on passes.

Talk about tokens

By Shaurya Malwa

• Synthetix plans to buy a derive, a trading platform of options based on Ethereum, in a 27 million dollars swap token agreement, absorbing the derive treasure, the code base and operations.
• Drift holders would receive 27 SNX tokens for each DRV. The tokens are faced with a locking of three months and a nine -month acquisition period.
• Some members of the derivative community have expressed their dissatisfaction, citing unfavorable assessments and a lack of advantages.
• Derive, originally, Lyra, was transferred from Synthetix in 2021 but diverged by putting an end to SUSD support and launching independent products, which makes it a rare challenge rejected.
• Elsewhere, “Launch Coin on Belief” (Launchcoin), formerly Pasternak, jumped 130% in the last 24 hours, aligning with the transition of the influence platform in the token emission platform believes in a decision that stimulated the visibility and interest of investors.
• The token had more than $ 100 million in a negotiation volume in the last 24 hours, against an average of $ 5 million in last week.
• The platform to believe has won quickly since the weekend, attracting attention to its low barrier model which allows web2 and traditional companies to offer tokens for fundraising.
• These tokens are intrinsically worthless, however, representing no right of equity, and a strict policy by believing that this does not allow the sharing of profits with the holders of tokens.

Positioning of derivatives

• Funding rates are green for most major tokens, with the exception of BCH, which involves bullish positioning on the perpetual term market.
• The cumulative volume adjusted to open Delta (CVD) interest painted a mixed image, with positive values ​​for XMR, TRX, UNI, ETH, AVAX and SOL suggesting a net purchase pressure. The other majors have a negative MCV 24 hours a day.
• The flow of blocks on deribit included long positions in BTC calls and short positions in ETH put, both by referring to the feeling of the bull market.

Market movements

• BTC is down 1.18% from 4 p.m. HE Tuesday to $ 103,485.75 (24 hours: -0.07%)
• ETH is down 2.81% to $ 2,608.56 (24 hours: + 5.09%)
• Coindesk 20 is down 1.15% to 3,329.26 (24 hours: + 2.51%)
• The CESR ether composite pace is down 5 BPS to 3.12%
• The BTC financing rate is 0.0051% (5.6316% annualized) on binance

• Dxy is down 0.63% to 100.37
• Gold is down 0.31% to $ 3,234.30 / oz
• The money is down 0.38% to $ 32.80 / Oz
• Nikkei 225 closed -0.14% at 38,128.13
• Hang Seng closed + 2.3% to 23,640.65
• FTSE is down 0.13% to 8,591.52
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.56% to 5,386.05
• Djia closed Tuesday -0.64% to 42,140.43
• S&P 500 closed + 0.72% to 5,886.55
• Nasdaq closed + 1.61% to 19,010.08
• The S&P / TSX composite index closed + 0.33% to 25,616.86
• S&P 40 Latin America closed + 2.41% to 2,640.68
• The 5 -year -old Treasury rate is down 2 BPS to 4.45%
• E-Mini S&P 500 Futures are unchanged at 5,900.00
• Future E-Mini Nasdaq-100 are unchanged at 21,266.50
• E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Industrial Index In Term is unchanged at 42,206.00

Bitcoin statistics

• BTC dominance: 62.39 (+ 0.34%)
• Ethereum / Bitcoin ratio: 0.02509 (-2.49%)
• Hashrate (Mobile average at seven days): 865 EH / S
• Hashprice (spot): $ 55.37
• Total costs: 6.27 BTC / 650 612.82.82
• CME Futures open interest: 145 350 BTC
• BTC at the price of gold: 31.9 oz
• BTC vs Gold Bourse Capt: 9.04%

Technical Analysis

• The graph shows that the Ether rally has stalled at the 200 -day simple mobile average (SMA).
• An escape would confirm the appearance of the bullish market, potentially attracting more traders on the market.

Cryptographic actions

Strategy (MSTR): closed Tuesday at $ 421.61 (+ 4.13%), down 2.29% to $ 411.96 in pre-commercialization

Coinbase Global (room): closed at $ 256.9 (+ 23.97%), down 1.38% to $ 253.36

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXX): closed at $ 29.39 (+ 3.52%)

Mara Holdings (Mara): closed at $ 16.37 (+ 2.63%), down 1.53% to $ 16.12

Riot Platform (Riot): closed at $ 9.06 (+ 4.14%), down 1.1% to $ 8.96

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $ 10.24 (+ 3.64%), down 0.68% to $ 10.17

Cleanspark (CLSK): closed at $ 10 (+ 3.95%), down 2.4% to $ 9.76

Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners Etf (WGMI): closed at $ 17.20 (+ 5.26%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $ 36.70 (+ 5.34%), down 0.93% to $ 36.36

Exodus movement (Exodus): closed at $ 42.04 (-22.58%), unchanged in pre-commercialization

ETF Flows

BTC ETFS spot:

• Daily net flows: – $ 91.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $ 41.05 billion
• Total BTC Holdings ~ 1.17 million

ETH ETFF SPOT

• Daily net flows: $ 13.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $ 2.48 billion
• Total of Holdings ~ 3.44 million

Source: Wacky investors

Nightflow

Graphic of the day

• The graph shows the volume of BTC Delta spot, which measures the clear difference between the purchase and sale of commercial volumes.
• The metric overturned positively, confirming that the department above $ 100,000 is supported by real demand on the cash market.

While you slept

In ether