Washington: Although US President Donald Trump has pushed Elon Musk’s plans for a new political party as a “ridiculous”, the announcement of the technological billionaire underlined the threat that the former unhappy ally
The launch of the Musk weekend of the “America Party” came to the wake of the signing of Trump, a sprawling bill on the internal policy that the technology magnate criticized on the estimates that he will ball the deficit.
The founder of Tesla was light on the details of the policy, but should target a handful of seats in the House and the Senate in the mid-term elections next year where the Republican in office voted for the Trump bill after preaching budget.
“”[Elon] The Musk America’s party is a joker who could upset the mid-term in 2026, in particular for the Republicans, “said political analyst Matt Shoemaker, a former republican Congress and former intelligence officer.
“With naked majorities in the congress, the Republicans should worry.”
Musk, the richest person in the world, had teased the idea of a new party for weeks, leading an informal survey on social networks in June which showed 80% among 5.6 million respondents.
Unlike previous third parties, his family would have almost unlimited resources and a talisman with a large constituency of young American men who consider him a genius of non-conformity and a superstar.
“The Musk brand calls on disgruntled self -employed and younger and warned voters who could otherwise break for republicans in swing districts,” said Shoemaker AFP.
Lower favability than Trump
With a personal wealth estimated at $ 405 billion, Musk has already shown that he was ready to spend big for politics, providing $ 277 million for Trump’s campaign in 2024.
However, a more recent foray into the Wisconsin policy – he spent $ 20 million only to see his candidate for the Supreme Court of the State to lose easily – underlined the limits of wealth and celebrity in politics.
And then there is the political difficulty of strengthening support in the American heart, among the voters who are not part of the “Tech Bro” bubble of the Silicon Valley of Musk.
Time Magazine۔s 2021 The person of the year was once appreciated by a large cup of Americans, but he saw his figures plunge after joining the Trump administration as a Costcutter in chief.
Musk’s net favorability in the most recent note published by Nate Silver, one of the most respected American pollsters, is underwater at -18,1, compared to a slightly less underwater -6.6 for Trump.
“Although you did not want to paint with a too wide brush, the republican base and the Maga movement are quite inseparable in today’s political climate,” said Flavio Hickel, an associate professor of political science at the Washington College of Maryland.
“And their support for Trump was unshakable despite recent controversies. It is difficult to imagine a political project associated with musk siphoning the votes of individuals who approve of [Donald] Trump, “he added.
History, record of third parties
While several Republicans and Democrats have gone to Independent, victories for third parties have been rare in the history of the modern United States.
The New York State Conservative Party in the 1970s and the Farmers’ Party in the 1930s were the only minor parties to win seats in the Senate in the last century.
The small parties were more successful in the house at the beginning of the 20th century, but won only one seat since the 1950s.
AFP Talked to several analysts who highlighted the many obstacles launched before third -party candidates trying to get on the ballot in a system designed to promote the status quo.
These include minimum signature requirements, deposit costs and other specific regulations for the age, residence and citizenship.
“Remember at the beginning of 2024 the so-called” Labels “party which was going to trace an intermediate course for the 2024 elections?” said the political veteran Matt Klink political strategist.
“They collapsed epic.”
Analysts agree that winning seats at Congress can be a section, but say that Musk can inflict pain on Trump by syphoning the votes of vulnerable republicans in search or by throwing money to the main opponents of the president’s favorite candidates.
“Musk’s party will not win the seats, but that could cost many Republicans,” said Evan Nierman, founder and CEO of the World Crisis Red Banyan Public Relations Society.
“In tight districts, even a few points have siphoned the right could reverse control,” he added.
