Bitcoin Sautéed at its highest level in more than two months while the US government has closed operations, probably preparing the way for a positive liquidity impulse of the Fiat.
The main cryptocurrency increased by almost 4% in the last 24 hours, prices increasingly increasing $ 119,455 for the first time since mid-August, Coindesk data show. Other major tokens such as ether ,, Solara And increased from 4% to 7%. The Coindesk 20 index (CD20) jumped 5% to 4,217 points.
The rally follows a closure of the United States government on Wednesday after a deeply divided congress prevented managers from reaching a financing agreement.
The closure could delay the report on the pay of Friday non -agricultural on Friday, the official figure of monthly jobs, which would eventually prepare the ground for a positive liquidity impulse or an expansion of liquidity in the financial system. This often results in easier access to financing, reduces the costs of the loan and encourages economic growth and risk taking on the financial markets.
“If the ADP is a leading signal and BLS printing is delayed, the Fed is likely to deliver a cup of 25 bp in October and twin with advice which maintains a second cup on the table by December, in parallel with an early sign to reduce the quantitative tightening (QT). This mixture should make real yields and soften the dollar in the fourth quarter, with an impulse Bear to the Courbe de l’Or.
The Wednesday ADP private wages reported a dark image of the labor market, strengthening the case of continuous rate reductions by the Fed. The central bank reduced the rates of 25 base points last month, while referring to additional relaxation in the coming months.
Mena added that the BTC price gain following the government’s closure could be a hint of an imminent explosive rally.
“The message is clear: with the traditional versions of data in flow and a macro uncertainty, Bitcoin remains one of the rare active active people when the old playing book is breaking down. Investors should look closely at this moment-it could mark the next explosive leg above the cryptographic markets,” he noted.
Options look cheap
A way of playing the great imminent movement, while being covered, could be through options contributed by deribates, which seem cheap at the front, according to the director of derivatives of Amberdata, Greg Magadini.
“After a long” drought period “for the volatility of the BTC, the closure of the United States government could finally be the catalyst to move BTC a lot,” Magadini told Coindesk. “This, associated with the steep contact in the term of implicit volatility, makes options cheap.”
The abrupt contango of the term structure of implicit volatility (IV), represented by a curve IV upwards upwards in the short -term more in the longer term, indicates that the market expects future volatility to be significantly higher than short -term volatility.
This makes short -term options relatively cheap. The prices of options are influenced by implicit volatility.
Magadini cited Long Stradledle as one of the favorite strategies to play the boom of imminent volatility. This is the simultaneous purchase of call and putting options at the same exercise price and with the same expiration. The purchase option gains value when the price of the underlying assets increases, while the sales option offers pricing protection. Together, this means that the Stradle Buyer takes advantage of significant price movements in both directions.
“The USD is likely to see the flows at the rear of the closure and the pay number of this week … which will guide the Fed. These catalysts could either cause the BTC rally (as a hedge of a dollar), or an accident (if the risk assets panic),” he said, exploiting the bias for the dradle.
