Coinbase (COIN) is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings Thursday after the market close, and Wall Street is widely expecting revenue to rise.
According to FactSet, analysts estimate that the crypto exchange will post earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14 – quadrupling the $0.28 from the third quarter of last year – and revenue of $1.8 billion, up from $1.2 billion for the same period of 2024.
But optimism is far from uniform. Analysts from JP Morgan, Barclays and Compass Point agree on the strength of blockchain rewards, USDC yields and trading activity, but are sharply divided on what this means for profitability and how much future value Coinbase could unlock from its Layer 2 blockchain, Base.
JP Morgan’s Kenneth Worthington is the most bullish of the group, upgrading Coinbase to “Overweight” and setting a price target of $404 for December 2026. His thesis leans heavily on Coinbase’s exploration of a base token. If launched, Worthington estimates the token could reach a market cap of $12 billion to $34 billion, with Coinbase retaining up to 40%, potentially adding $14 to $42 per share to the equity value.
He also sees benefits in Coinbase’s efforts to segment USDC customers through its subscription product, Coinbase One. By limiting stable yield rewards to paying members, Worthington estimates that Coinbase could add up to $1 per share in profits per year, depending on customer behavior.
Barclays’ Benjamin Budish, who has an Equal Weight rating on the company, shares the positive earnings outlook but takes a more tempered approach. He estimates adjusted EBITDA will be 6% higher than consensus, driven by higher-than-expected retail and USDC-linked interest income.
It estimates third-quarter total transaction revenue at $1.05 billion, beating Street forecasts, and models $771 million in subscription and services revenue, above management’s forecast. However, he lowers his price target from $365 to $361, citing broader multiple compression in the market.
Ed Engel of Compass Point is more skeptical. Although he acknowledges that third-quarter results will likely be slightly better than expected, he maintains a “sell” rating. His concern centers on Coinbase’s move toward low-margin subscription revenue. Engel argues that USDC and user payments hurt profitability and that investors may be underestimating the impact. It also warns of a slowdown in retail activity in the second half of the quarter and believes that the acquisition of derivatives platform Deribit – while strategically attractive – faces increasing competition from regulated US venues like CBOE.
Notably, Engel remains silent on the base token potential touted by JP Morgan, suggesting less conviction or visibility on this long-term play.
One point of agreement: USDC is becoming an increasingly important profit center. All three companies highlight how Coinbase benefits from its partnership with Circle (CRCL) and its exposure to growing stablecoin balances. But again, analysts differ on how much of this revenue Coinbase can retain by adjusting reward structures and attempting to funnel users to paying tiers.
As Coinbase advances in subscription services, on-chain infrastructure and derivatives products, Thursday’s earnings report will serve as a test not only of its recent performance, but also of whether the company’s vision of the future proves most accurate.
