Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million per coin if it captures a larger share of the global store of value market currently dominated by gold and government bonds, according to Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management.
In a report released earlier this week, Hougan said bitcoin’s long-term rise depends less on short-term market cycles and more on how much of the global wealth preservation market the cryptocurrency absorbs over time.
“A million sounds crazy,” Hougan said. “This implies that bitcoin will rise 14 times from the current price.”
He pointed to several factors supporting this prediction, including the rapid growth of the global market for stores of value, including gold, government bonds and other defensive assets, which has grown from about $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $40 trillion today. Bitcoin currently only represents about 4% of this market by value.
If the largest cryptocurrency managed to capture about half of that market under current conditions, its price could approach the $1 million mark within about a decade, Hougan said. If the broader store of value market continues to grow, bitcoin would need a smaller share to reach that level.
Setting the price at $1 million
The million dollar prediction has become a recurring theme in the crypto industry. President Donald Trump’s son Eric recently doubled his $1 million BTC call. In August, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said bitcoin could reach this price by 2030.
Jack Dorsey, who led X (formerly Twitter) until 2021 and co-founded payments company Block (formerly Square), said bitcoin could hit $1 million in five years. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, estimates this could happen as early as 2028. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest predicts bitcoin could reach $3.8 million by the end of the decade. Bernstein predicted in 2024 $1 million by 2033.
So why has the $1 million goal become such a widely cited benchmark for Bitcoin? CoinDesk interviewed several market analysts.
“It’s a clear title and shorthand for the idea that Bitcoin could rival gold as a store of value. The exact number matters less than the share of global wealth captured by Bitcoin,” said Mati Greenspan, market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics.
For Jason Fernandes, also a market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, this step is more psychological than a precise valuation target, reflecting the belief that bitcoin could ultimately win the debate over the store of value.
However, he also believes that part of the narrative is driven by marketing dynamics. “Part of the talk is promotional because round numbers circulate well and align with holders’ incentives,” Fernandes said, while adding that the underlying thesis is more than just hype.
“I think many investors make a ‘static denominator’ error, pricing bitcoin against the current market store of value rather than a much larger future market,” he said.
For Fernandes, the real question is not whether a million-dollar bitcoin is theoretically possible, but whether institutional adoption is long enough to justify that price.
Analysts agree on direction, but not on timetable
Some of the analysts who shared comments with CoinDesk said that Hougan’s projection is plausible in the long term, although most present it as a decade-long adoption story rather than a short-term forecast.
“Geopolitical tensions strengthen the Bitcoin thesis,” Greenspan said. “In times of uncertainty, investors seek neutral stores of value, and Bitcoin increasingly fits into that bucket alongside gold.”
Greenspan said this step is possible but would likely take a decade or more, requiring continued institutional adoption and greater regulatory clarity.
Fernandes said Hougan’s argument was essentially a thesis about market share. Bitcoin does not need to replace gold outright, he said; it just needs to capture part of a growing global store of value market.
“A million dollar bitcoin assumes long-term adoption and market share gains in the global store of value market,” Fernandes said. “This is a thesis on the end state of Bitcoin if it becomes a major global monetary asset.”
Institutional adoption remains the main driver
Hougan argued that Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins and its decentralized network give it similar characteristics to traditional stores of value, such as gold.
Fernandes said the long-term million-dollar thesis largely depends on continued institutional adoption and growth of the global store of value market.
“BTC does not need to replace gold or fiat; it only needs to capture about 17% of a projected $121 trillion store of value market over the next decade to justify a $1 million price tag,” Fernandes said.
Greenspan said geopolitical uncertainty could further strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral asset.
“In times of uncertainty, investors look for neutral stores of value, and bitcoin increasingly finds itself in that bucket alongside gold,” he said, while adding that achieving such a valuation would likely take years of sustained adoption.
Nima Beni, founder of Bitlease, said the timeline could accelerate if confidence in traditional financial assets weakens.
“Bitcoin hits $1 million when confidence in traditional ‘safe’ assets collapses,” he said, pointing to potential sovereign debt crises or gold market disruptions as possible catalysts.
Despite the bullish projections, analysts said bitcoin’s trajectory toward such valuations would depend more on long-term adoption and macroeconomic conditions than short-term market cycles.
