Bitcoin The relief rally from the loss of oil gains lasted about 36 hours.
Bitcoin fell to $69,393 on Thursday morning, down 0.8% over the past 24 hours and 4.3% for the week, after attacks on two oil tankers in Iraqi waters sent Brent crude back above $100 a barrel.
The move wiped out Wednesday’s optimism around the IEA’s proposed record reserve release and lowered risk sentiment in Asian markets.
The chart tells the story of a market that can’t catch a break. Bitcoin hit $71,230 late Wednesday before the oil tanker headlines hit the headlines, losing nearly $2,000 in a matter of hours.
This is the third time in two weeks that bitcoin has exceeded $71,000, only to be pushed back by an escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
Brent surged 10.5% on Thursday, lifted by a combination of tanker attacks, the clearance of Oman’s Mina Al Fahal port, continued hostilities in the Persian Gulf and growing doubts over whether the release of IEA reserves will be large enough to compensate for the supply disruption.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell 1.8%, with energy the only sector in the green. The session extended the losses gradually, without any sign of stabilization.
The broader crypto market has followed bitcoin lower. Ether fell to $2,025, down 0.5% for the day and 4.5% for the week. Solana fell 1.5% to $85 and is now down 5.7% over seven days, the worst-performing major. XRP lost 0.8% to $1.37.
Dogecoin fell 0.8% to $0.092, giving back most of Tuesday’s gains generated by Musk. BNB was stable at $642.
The trend over the past two weeks has been consistent. Good stocks are pushing bitcoin between $71,000 and $74,000. Bad headlines bring it down to between $66,000 and $68,000. The net movement over the period is close to zero, which is exactly what the on-chain data suggests.
Apparent demand remains deeply negative at -30,800 BTC over 30 days. CryptoQuant’s bull-bear indicator is still in bearish territory, while losing supply continues to climb. Every bounce is sold by holders looking to exit.
Trump said earlier this week that the war would end “very soon” and that military objectives were being “pretty well accomplished.”
But the timetable remains unclear: Iran continues to strike targets throughout the region and the Strait of Hormuz is still disrupted. Mixed messages from Washington have prevented markets from confidently assessing the duration of the conflict.
The March 17-18 Fed meeting is now five days away, and oil’s return above $100 makes the stagflation scenario harder to rule out and rate cuts even more distant.
