Gold is up almost 60% year to date, significantly outperforming bitcoin, which, by comparison, is up just 13% – despite all the talk of a bull market.
Analysts say gold is not too expensive, despite the epic rally, and Kalshi traders are confident that 2025 will be the year the yellow metal outperforms BTC.
Yet Hyperliquid data suggests crypto traders remain out of the game. Only 34% of positions are long, with only 35% of traders profitable, and a majority of them are caught losing short positions as volatility rocks markets and hyper-leveraged accounts increase G-forces on the roller coaster.
The average user’s daily PnL has fallen to just under $50,000, indicating that most are consistently on the wrong side of the market.
It’s a revealing snapshot of a business community caught off guard. The latest wipeout of famed trader Machi Big Brother, whose account plunged from $43 million in profits to more than $13 million in losses, highlights how overleveraged bets on Bitcoin’s rebound continue to backfire.
The combination of misplaced conviction and excessive leverage has turned crypto markets into a graveyard of ill-timed trades rather than a reflection of true macroeconomic demand.
The latest market report from Glassnode reinforces this image of fragility.
The research firm describes the recent $19 billion deleveraging as one of the largest in Bitcoin history, erasing debt and leaving the market in what it calls a “reset phase.”
Funding rates have plunged to FTX collapse levels in 2022, ETF inflows have turned negative, and long-term holders are spreading out in force. Glassnode warns that unless new demand emerges, bitcoin is likely to contract further below the $108,000 level.
In contrast, gold’s rise has been driven by conviction rather than leverage. Geopolitical tensions, slowing inflation and bets on lower rates have all boosted its appeal as a safe-haven asset in a world of macroeconomic uncertainty. Crypto’s speculative structure, which depends on ETF flows and derivatives leverage, has not been able to capture the same narrative tailwind.
For now, the data tells a clear story: Traders may still want a bitcoin bull market, but the market they actually have looks a lot more like gold.
Market movement:
BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $108,287, sliding due to renewed risk aversion, profit-taking after recent rebounds and macroeconomic uncertainty.
ETFs: Ether is changing hands at $3,891, seeing a sell-off in tandem with BTC as speculative demand weakens amid broader crypto pressure.
Gold: Gold is rallying as investors seek a safe haven given current geopolitical tensions and expectations of lower U.S. rates.
Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 is down 0.3% as major markets in Asia shy away from growing concerns over geopolitical tensions.
Elsewhere in crypto
- Trump Family Has Already Made Over $1 Billion In Profit From Crypto, Says Eric Trump (Decrypt)
- SEC Commissioner Peirce makes case for financial privacy, says tokenization is a ‘major priority right now’ (The Block)
- BNY Mellon Remains “Nimble” on Stablecoin Plans, Focuses on Infrastructure (CoinDesk)
