Bitcoin’s “realized capitalization” hits an all-time high of $1.125 trillion, suggesting that BTC remains in a bull market despite the price falling nearly 40% over the past 10 weeks.
This on-chain metric, which values each bitcoin at the price it last moved at, highlights actual capital inflows rather than speculative price action like total market capitalization.
Data from Glassnode shows that the realized cap has continued to rise throughout the 36% correction from October’s all-time high price, although it has been stagnant in the $1.125 trillion area lately. A similar pause was seen during the April 2025 tariff crisis, when bitcoin bottomed near $76,000 before reaching new highs.
During the 2022 bear market, the realized cap fell from approximately $470 billion to $385 billion as investors capitulated and coins were sold at a lower cost basis – this type of response is not seen at this time.
Four-year cycle narrative called into question
Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that bitcoin could defy the four-year cycle narrative, with upside surprises in 2026. Dragosch pointed to resilient global growth combined with ongoing rate cuts to steepen the yield curve and increase liquidity — all conditions that could weaken the U.S. dollar, an environment that has historically been favorable for bitcoin.
“In my opinion, bitcoin is significantly undervaluing the current macroeconomic environment, to a degree last seen during the Covid recession and FTX collapse, despite the absence of signs of a recession in the United States and evidence of a reacceleration of growth,” Dragosch said.
