By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran remains the biggest news story of the day as attacks intensify and spread.
Markets responded as they usually do: by reducing risks and pushing up oil prices. Bitcoin fell to $66,300, down 0.5% over 24 hours, after hitting a high of $68,000 over the weekend. The CoinDesk 20 Index fell more than 2%, signaling deeper losses in the crypto market and futures tied to the S&P 500 Index lost 1%.
Beyond the headlines and panic, the war could only strengthen “depreciation trading,” a strategy in which investors turn to scarce assets like gold and bitcoin in anticipation of a decline in the value of fiat (paper) currencies.
Governments in the United States and elsewhere already owe more than they generate in terms of economic growth. Their finances will only deteriorate as the war drags on. In such situations, governments do not collect enough taxes. Instead, they force central banks to “print money” through bond purchases or quantitative easing (QE) to monetize the debt. This floods the fiat supply and dilutes purchasing power. Hello debasement.
Traders are at the forefront of this process by accumulating store of value assets like gold and BTC. The yellow metal has been tearing for more than a year, mainly on debasement flows. BTC did not participate at the time. But now, after falling by nearly half to below $67,000 since October, it appears oversold. The possibility that the devaluation trade catalyzes a rebound in the largest cryptocurrency cannot be ruled out.
Additionally, historically, the Fed becomes dovish by reducing liquidity during times of geopolitical tensions, thereby supporting asset prices, as Arthur Hayes, CIO of the Maelstrom Fund, noted in his blog post.
Let’s see how things play out. In the meantime, traders should watch for major risks and rising oil prices. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- March 2: SuperRare releases Delirium, a new collection by artist Xer0x
- March 2: OM from Mantra will become MANTRA with a 1:4 coin split as the MANTRA channel moves from v6 to v7.
- Macro
- March 2, 10:00 a.m.: ISM US manufacturing PMI for February est. 52.3 (previous 52.6)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 2: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, -$0.32
- March 2: Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market, -$0.18
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- PoolTogether DAO votes to resubmit and manually execute the remaining actions for stopping PTBR-35 governance after a previous runtime error. Voting closes on March 2.
- Angle DAO votes for the orderly liquidation of EURA and USDA stablecoins, offering users a one-year 1:1 buyback period followed by a final settlement airdrop. Voting closes on March 2.
- GMX DAO votes to transition to a defined leadership model by hiring a CEO with performance-related compensation and forming an interim management committee to guide the restructuring. Voting closes on March 2.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- March 2: Dovu (DOVU) will be listed on Kraken.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.98% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $66,194.78 (24 hours: -0.35%)
- ETH is up 1.48% at $1,950.67 (24 hours: -1.63%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.78% at 1,916.46 (24h: -1.11%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 1bp to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is -0.0011% (-1.2147% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is up 0.64% at 98.23
- Gold futures are up 3.03% at $5,406.80
- Silver futures are up 2.64% at $95.75
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.35% at 58,057.24
- Hang Seng closed 2.14% lower at 26,059.85
- The FTSE is down 0.78% at 10,825.36
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.89% at 6,022.64
- DJIA closed Friday down 1.05% at 48,977.92
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.43% at 6,878.88
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.92% at 22,668.21
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 0.47% at 34,339.99
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.82% at 3,741.78
- The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 0.4 bps to 3.966%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.04% at 6,817.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.42% at 24,650.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1.11% at 48,458.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.63% (0.22%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02944 (-0.18%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,068 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $29.01
- Total fees: 2.55 BTC / $169,782
- CME Futures Open Interest: 109,280 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 12.2 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 4.42%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows daily fluctuations in the price of Ether with Bollinger Bands, which are volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day simple moving average of the price.
- The gap between the bands narrowed to $226, the narrowest since June 2025.
- Volatility typically explodes when the bands narrow, meaning the token could soon see significant price movements in either direction.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Friday at $175.85 (-2.88%), -2.42% at $171.60 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $83.44 (-4.32%), -3.46% at $80.55
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.59 (-6.15%), -2.19% at $20.14
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.39 (-4.09%), -3.73% at $30.22
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.94 (+5.80%), -1.23% at $8.83
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $16.29 (-4.68%), -2.70% at $15.85
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.97 (-5.62%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (-4.69%), -2.01% at $9.75
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $39.88 (-5.43%), -3.61% at $38.44
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.20 (-2.39%), -2.25% at $9.97
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.50 (-2.92%), -0.39% at $129.00
- Strive (ASST): closed at $7.94 (-3.05%), -2.39% at $7.75
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.82 (-5.41%), +0.44% to $6.85
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.66 (-12.88%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.13 (-0.88%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: -$27.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.78 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$43 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.63 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.7 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
- Trump says Iran war could last ‘four weeks or less’ as strikes intensify (Euronews): Trump says Iran war could last four weeks or less as US and Israeli forces continue strikes in Iran, which responds by striking Gulf states, Israel and US targets.
- New Iranian strikes have been reported across the region, including in Saudi Arabia, as US planes crash in Kuwait (BBC): New Iranian strikes have been reported across the Middle East, with explosions in Bahrain, Dubai and Saudi Arabia.
- U.S. stock futures fall in pre-market trading as oil, gold retreat from highs (CoinDesk): U.S. stocks fell in pre-market trading. The Invesco QQQ ETF fell 1.5%. An oil refinery in Saudi Arabia was hit by Iran, pushing WTI crude oil up to $75 per barrel. Gold rose more than 2% to $5,400 an ounce.
- Hedge Funds, Insurers Rush to Evaluate Exposure as Iran Bogs Down (Bloomberg): Hedge funds, banks and insurers rushed to evaluate their exposure to the Middle East after weekend attacks on Iran fueled chaos in the region.
