Days of bearish positioning came crashing down in about two hours Tuesday evening as bitcoin surged above $72,700 after Trump confirmed a two-week ceasefire with Iran via Truth Social just before his 8 p.m. ET deadline.
The move triggered $595 million in total crypto liquidations across 118,489 traders, according to CoinGlass data.
Short positions accounted for $427 million compared to $168 million for long positions, a ratio of more than 2.5 to 1 that reflects how the market was positioned for further decline as the deadline approached.
The largest liquidation was an $11.79 million BTC-USDT short sale on Binance. Bitcoin accounted for $245 million in total liquidations, ether followed with $126 million, and tokenized Brent oil futures on Hyperliquid added $33 million as crude crashed more than 10%, with another $42 million in CL contracts (WTI crude).
Oil, which was among the top crypto assets sold off throughout the war, moved to the other side of the market as Brent fell to around $99 and WTI to around $95.
It was in the 12-hour window that the real damage was concentrated. Of the total $595 million, $508 million was liquidated in just 12 hours, with shorts absorbing $398 million, the most aggressive squeeze since March 4, when bitcoin rallied during the first round of ceasefire speculation.
Solana’s SOL added $19.6 million in liquidations, ZEC recorded $13.4 million, and XRP contributed smaller amounts alongside a long tail of altcoins. Even token positions in silver and gold were caught up in the whirlwind as the commodities complex reassessed the removal of the war bounty.
The ceasefire itself is conditional.
Trump called it a “two-sided ceasefire” and said the United States had “already met and exceeded all military objectives.” Iran confirmed the suspension but hedged on the Strait of Hormuz, saying the tankers could transit for two weeks “in coordination with the Iranian armed forces and with due regard to technical limitations.”
To put into perspective how extreme the positioning had become, the Fear and Greed Index stood at 8 on Sunday, continuing a trend of readings below 10 throughout the conflict. Elsewhere, Santiment data showed five bearish social media posts for every four bullish posts. All sentiment and positioning indicators were pointing in one direction. The ceasefire violently pushed the market into the other.
Bitcoin’s move to $72,700 puts it at the top of the $65,000 to $73,000 range that has contained every rally and sell-off since the start of the war.
Whether that breaks the fork or becomes another faux-chef depends on what “two weeks” becomes.
