On Friday, global markets will face a multi-billion dollar quarterly derivatives event known as quadruple witchcraft.
The event takes place on the third Friday of March, June, September and December, when four main types of derivatives expire simultaneously. These include stock index futures, stock index options, single stock options and single stock futures.
Because traders must close, roll, or settle these positions simultaneously, trading activity often increases and price fluctuations can intensify in traditional markets.
Exact figures for the March 2026 expiration have not yet been released, although recent events illustrate the magnitude. In March 2025, approximately $4.7 trillion worth of stock and index derivatives expired during the quarterly event. According to TradeStation, this session saw the S&P 500’s highest trading volume of the entire year, while other witch days also saw above-average activity.
Large expirations like this often force institutions to rebalance their portfolios, unwind their hedges, and adjust their risk exposure on short notice. Much activity tends to be concentrated in the final hour of trading, when liquidity spikes and volatility can increase quickly.
This quarter’s expiration comes amid an already volatile business environment. Conflict in the Middle East recently pushed oil prices to $120 per barrel, while gold fell below $4,600 and bitcoin below $69,000. Meanwhile, the VIX volatility index jumped above 35 last week, the highest level in a year, signaling increased stress in financial markets.
Although quadruple witchcraft has its origins in traditional finance, it may spill over into crypto markets. Bitcoin is increasingly trading alongside broader risk assets, meaning sharp moves in stocks often ripple through digital markets.
Cole Kennelly, CEO of Volmex Finance, said tomorrow’s event could lead to volatility in crypto markets, noting that “a quadruple witching could trigger a spike in volatility across assets as large derivatives positions expire. This could already be manifesting in crypto, with the Volmex Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (BVIV) trending higher during the event.”
How Bitcoin Performed During the Quadruple Witching Days of 2025
On March 21, bitcoin was down slightly that day, but the biggest move came later, with prices bottoming out a few weeks later around $76,000 following the market’s reaction to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
On June 20, bitcoin fell 1.5% and continued to fall, reaching a local low near $98,000 two days later. On September 19, Bitcoin fell more than 1% for the day, but the real movement occurred the following week, with a sharp decline from $177,000 to $108,000. Then, on December 19, bitcoin finished up about 3%, at around $85,000, although it remained in a broader decline from October highs.
Although price action during the day itself tends to be relatively moderate, a consistent pattern of weakness appears in the days or weeks that follow.
Even if the quadruple witches don’t add to Bitcoin’s volatility on Friday, crypto traders have another event, specifically for digital assets, to keep in mind.
Crypto derivatives face their own major quarterly expiration the following week on March 27, with $13.5 billion set to expire on Deribit, where positioning indicates high demand for volatility strategies rather than strong directional bets.
