This is a technical analysis article written by CoinDesk Analyst and Certified Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin For traders, view the monthly candlestick chart, which waves the white flag of indecision like never before, and the October candle says it all.
The October candle represents a massive trading range, from around $103,600 to over $126,000. This is a larger spread than the previous three months combined! Still, BTC ended October with a modest 3.8% decline. When prices fluctuate wildly but end the relevant period close to where it began, this is what some traders call an “indecision candle.”
A Taurus would see this as grounding – a moment of calm before the next big leap forward. This is possible because BTC’s ongoing bull run since the start of 2023 has been a classic “staircase” rally. Also, historically, BTC highs tend to form sharp, inverted V-shaped blow moves. So maybe this is gaining momentum. But there is a catch.
This indecision occurs at a key moment: the trendline connecting Bitcoin’s all-time highs of 2017 and 2021. Record highs are when buyers usually flex their muscles, but right now, they’re hesitant. And the monthly MACD histogram, an indicator used to gauge the strength and changes of trends, confirms this slowing of bullish momentum, as it produces smaller peaks above zero instead of new highs.
Notably, last month’s new price high did not receive the MACD’s blessing, creating a bearish divergence that echoes warnings seen at previous highs, such as the infamous 2021 high.
Add to that the fact that this uncertainty persists despite bullish news such as Fed rate cuts and better U.S.-China trade relations, and the case for the bulls starts to look shaky.
And if that wasn’t enough, Bitcoin’s current stuck sentiment mirrors the indecision we’re seeing in the US Dollar Index (DXY) after its own strong downtrend. The DXY appears poised for a turnaround and could soon rally, which historically puts pressure on Bitcoin’s rally.
Where does this leave us? If momentum fades and buyers fail to overcome resistance, BTC could see a pullback to around $100,000 or lower before attempting the next big move. Conversely, a further move above $116,000 would be necessary to reconsider the bullish outlook.
