Bad news has been bad news in the past 24 hours. The report on low jobs in the United States on Friday strengthened bets on deeper, but Bitcoin nourished cuts did not play.
The main cryptocurrency by market value remains heavy below $ 112,000, instead of rallying to the prospect of an easier monetary policy as many had planned. The inability to find upwards suggests potential for a deeper sale to come.
PNF shock
Job seekers had a difficult period in August, because the non -agitated wage bill only revealed 22,000 additions of jobs, much less than the projection of Dow Jones of 75,000. The report also revised the combined creation of job creation in June and July by 21,000. In particular, the revised figure of June showed a net loss of 13,000.
Nine sectors, including manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade and professional services, recorded job losses, while health services and leisure and hospitality were positive points.
Kobeissi’s letter described the “absolutely crazy” job report. The information service described downward revisions in previous months as a sign of a broken system and the labor market entering the territory of the recession.
Following job data, the probability of reducing the Fed rate at the September 17 meeting increased to 100%, and the chances of a reduction of 50 base points reached 12%. The probability of additional rate drops in November and December has also increased, the delivery of cash is lower.
The upcoming revisions of previous job reports should add fuel to the rates drop bets. “The BLS will announce the annual reference revisions on Tuesday, and they should indicate even lower growth earlier. Some surveys suggest between 500k and 1 mln that jobs could be revised,” said Marc Chandler, Director General of Bannockburn Forex, Marc Chandler in a market update.
The double BTC top is intact; The volatility of treasury yields can increase
Bitcoin has briefly rallied into the hopes of a drop in Fed rate and milder yields, reaching a summit of more than $ 113,300. But the rebound quickly faded, the prices go back less than $ 111,982 – the double neckline.
The failure to resume this level underlined the ventilation of double August at the end of August and validates the downstream configuration, keeping the risks downwards. The prices crossing the cloud of Ichimoku also validate the bailout prospects, as Brent Donelly, president of the Spectra markets noted, in a market update.
The first support line is located around $ 101,700, which corresponds to the simple 200 -day mobile average (SMA). The latest Bitcoin double -headed ventilation closely reflects that of this year of this year, which led to a large sale of several weeks which reduced prices to around $ 75,000.
The double high is a training of downward inversion diagrams that occurs after an asset has experienced an upward trend. It forms when the price reaches a high point (the first peak)Then back down to a level of support called the neckline. The price then increases again but fails to exceed the first peak, creating a second peak at about the same level. The reason is confirmed when the price breaks below the neck, indicating that the previous rise in the previous rise has lost momentum and a downward trend can follow.
Treasury yields can become volatile
The lower lower technical perspectives, presented by the last double summit ventilation, are reinforced by the possibility of a collection of volatility of the yields of the treasury, which often leads to a financial tightening.
Volatility could resume in the coming days, because the imminent Fed rate drops could initially send the yield to 10 years below in a positive development for BTC and risk assets. That said, the disadvantage seems limited and could be quickly reversed, a bit like what happened at the end of 2024.
Last year, from September to December, the yield at 10 years in fact increased, even if the Fed began to reduce the rates, reversing the earlier decreases that had occurred before September. The 10-year yield reached the bottom at 3.6% in mid-September 2024, then increased to 4.80% in mid-January.
Although the labor market seems to be much lower today than last year, inflation is relatively higher and budgetary expenses continue tirelessly, which means that the yield could increase after the drop in the September rate.
“Why has the 10-year yield increased from September to December 2024 is open to interpretation, but there has been a under-tension of macro-resilience, sticky inflation and many discussions on the economy are more intense. But the derogation in the medium term.
August CPI data scheduled for next week
When the Fed reduced rates last September, the American consumer price index was much less than 3%. Since then, it has risen up to 3%. Most importantly, the CPI of August, scheduled for next week, are likely to provide additional evidence of the adhesion of inflation.
According to Wells Fargo, the basic IPC is likely to have increased by 0.3%, keeping the rate from one year to 3.1%. Meanwhile, the title IPC should have increased by 0.3% per month and 2.9% in annual shift.
