Bitcoin should trade higher than today.
This is the view of Kevin de Patoul, CEO and co-founder of crypto investment firm Keyrock, who says the market is misinterpreting both macroeconomic conditions and structural progress in digital assets.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $73,000 at press time. Bitcoin is down about 18% year to date, after hitting an all-time high of around $125,000 in early October last year.
“If you go back from early 2025 to 2026 and look at all the positive developments such as regulatory progress and institutional adoption, most people would have said this should cause prices to explode,” de Patoul said. “Increasing macroeconomic uncertainty should increase demand for Bitcoin, and yet this is not the case.”
Instead, BTC has spent much of the last nine months under pressure, still behaving like a risk asset rather than the risk-free hedge many proponents claim it to be. The capital that has aggressively flowed into bitcoin over the past 18 months, much of it institutional, now appears more tactical than ideological.
“It’s still valued as a risk asset. Last in, first out in terms of capital allocation,” he said. “If investors perceive things this way, then in times of stress they reduce their exposure.”
Crypto assets have performed moderately over the past six months, with bitcoin well below its previous highs and much of the altcoin market struggling to maintain momentum. Trading volumes shrank, volatility subsided and broad-based rallies failed to materialize, contrasting sharply with the speculative surges of previous cycles. Even as institutional adoption and tokenization efforts progress in the background, price action has remained subdued, reflecting cautious capital flows and a market searching for its next catalyst.
De Patoul does not go so far as to say that the market is wrong. But he struggles to reconcile this decline with the broader context. “Nothing really explains the recent decline, unless there is a misunderstanding about what type of asset it is supposed to be.”
This disconnect is emblematic of what he sees as crypto’s current moment: not a cycle of disruption, but a structural transition.
“We don’t issue stablecoins or accept retail deposits, but we are connected to everything and provide liquidity across all locations,” de Patoul said. “This gives us a front-row seat to the evolution and allows us to participate in the market as it evolves toward digital assets and tokenized infrastructure.”
A tale of two markets
From Keyrock’s perspective, working with banks, asset managers, issuers and exchanges, 2026 looks less like a stagnation and more like a shakeup.
“2026 looks like a year of transition rather than a pivotal year,” de Patoul said. “Much of what defined crypto in previous cycles is disappearing faster than expected, while the things that actually make sense are still being built, like real on-chain finance.”
According to him, two largely uncorrelated markets are developing in parallel.
The first is the crypto-native ecosystem: decentralized finance (DeFi), altcoins, and the familiar cycle of liquidity and hype. Here, the feeling is mixed. The rising tide that once lifted all the chips has receded. Large-scale speculative rallies are harder to sustain, replaced by “very specific and logical opportunities,” he said.
The second is the digitalization of traditional finance. Tokenized money market funds, stablecoins, on-chain funds and new market infrastructures. On that front, he says, he remains as enthusiastic as ever.
“When I talk to institutions, nothing has changed. The level of enthusiasm, the level of construction, none of that has slowed down,” de Patoul said. “The goal is to make crypto assets more accessible to customers and rewire parts of the financial markets.”
These institutional efforts are less sensitive to Bitcoin price fluctuations. Stablecoins, tokenized funds, and settlement rails are about improving financial plumbing, not speculating on the next crypto rally. The Circle (CRCL) IPO and partnerships like Apollo’s partnership with DeFi protocol Morpho reflect multi-year commitments, he noted.
But even though the assets have been tokenized, the utility layer is still under construction.
Built, but not yet useful
The last 18 months have marked the transition from concept to product. The funds have been tokenized. Stablecoins have proliferated. The infrastructure has been deployed.
Yet liquidity remains low in many tokenized and real-world active (RWA) money market funds. Tokens exist, but often function as envelopes rather than instruments of transformation.
“They built the token. Now the question is: where can it be used? Who accepts it? Can it be used as collateral? Can it provide liquidity at scale?” said de Patoul.
Tokenizing a fund can, paradoxically, cut it off from traditional capital pools without immediately unlocking the benefits of digital. Bridging traditional institutions and on-chain markets, the ability to use tokenized assets seamlessly in both worlds, takes time.
“We are stuck in an intermediate phase,” he said. “The pieces are there. The next step is putting them together to deliver liquidity at scale.”
This is why he sees 2027 and 2028 as the real inflection point.
Traditional capital markets are much bigger than cryptocurrencies. Even a small percentage of on-chain migration could eclipse crypto’s previous peak.
“Sometime in the year 2027, we may get to a situation where RWAs become as important as all of crypto was in the past,” de Patoul said. “This will play out in the next two or three years.”
In other words, digital finance could overtake crypto, but not necessarily in the form of a price-driven boom.
“If the utility was fully operational today, we would probably have a booming market,” he said. “But that’s not the case. It’s a transitional phase.”
Keyrock’s bet
Founded eight years ago on the thesis that all assets would eventually be digital and onchain, Keyrock positions itself as a bridge between traditional and digital finance.
Historically anchored in capital markets and market making, the company continues to expand its crypto-native offerings, derivatives trading, liquidity offering and tailored strategies for investors. In September, it launched Keyrock Asset Management, adding a second pillar to the business. Assets under management remain modest given the recent launch, de Patoul said.
The broader ambition is to move from tokenization to functionality: making digital assets truly useful at scale.
“A very big priority for us is how to move from tokenizing products to making those assets useful and tokenizing them at scale,” he said.
Regulatory clarity remains a determining factor. De Patoul calls the clarity bill a “yellow flag,” not because he doubts its eventual passage, but because timing matters. “If the project is derailed for two years, it will have a significant impact,” he said. “Adopting regulations is a huge deal for institutions. That’s when they can invest at scale.”
For now, crypto price action may seem uninteresting. But in De Patoul’s view, the quiet construction of digital market infrastructure has far more consequences than a short-term rebound.
“The foundation is being laid,” he said, “but the magnitude is yet to come.” This is why he considers “2027 and 2028 as the real inflection point for digital markets”.
Learn more: JPMorgan Upbeat on Crypto for Rest of Year as Institutional Flows Expected to Drive Recovery
