If you had to summarize Bitcoin market action since June, “range-bound” and “directionless” might do the trick.
The price is trading well above $100,000, with no clear directional bias. But don’t confuse fork play with inactivity: BTC worth billions has changed hands in this range, a dynamic with significant market implications, according to a new report from 10x Research.
The company’s founder, Markus Thielen, highlighted in a report to clients on Friday that nearly 5.9 million BTC, worth $588 billion, has traded between $100,000 and $126,000 over the past few months, a value higher than ether. market capitalization of approximately $428 billion. This is a staggering amount of value traded during the supposedly boring game of range.
What makes this on-chain churn rate so important?
According to Thielen, much of this coin is now held by less convinced investors or by institutional players under pressure from risk managers and skeptics. These holders could be likely to panic sell if the price falls further.
“Many of these coins now sit in vulnerable balance sheets, vulnerable not because of convictions, but because Bitcoin-skeptical institutional risk managers and executives could ultimately force the closure of these positions,” Thielen noted.
About 347,000 BTC alone changed hands near the $101,000 mark, he added, highlighting how recent clustered activity has been close to critical price levels.
Overall, this raises the stakes if BTC goes below $100,000.
Key Tiers Below $100,000
Thielen warned that such a breakdown could trigger selling by these fragile holders, accelerating the decline into what he described as an “air pocket” of liquidity centered around $93,000, the last major group of buying demand.
In other words, the volatility you don’t see on the price chart could still be lurking beneath the surface – millions of BTC moving through restless hands and a tenuous balance waiting to tip.
A potential drop to $93,000 or lower could trigger increased volatility, as the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs have an average acquisition cost near $90,000. “These $60.5 billion in ETF inflows could quickly come under scrutiny if price pressure accelerates,” Thielen said.
At the time of writing, BTC changed hands at $105,400, according to CoinDesk data.
