Bitcoin has just won his worst first quarter in a decade, down 11.7% when the markets had trouble understanding the economic agenda of the new administration.
Performance ranked 12th in the last 15 quarters, according to data from Nydig Research.
The drawing invites a familiar question in crypto circles: is the cycle over? The last time Bitcoin started the year is bad in 2015, during a prolonged collapse after the 2013 peak and after the collapse of MT. Gox, according to Nydig. At the time, the prices were recovered modestly during the rest of the year before rising in 2016.
In the first quarter of 2020, in the middle of a market sale linked to fears surrounding the COVVI-19 pandemic, BTC saw a withdrawal of 9.4%, but then recovered to finish the year by more than 300%. In other years with negative yields of the first quarter – such as 2014, 2014 and 2022 – Bitcoin ended the year down, coinciding with the ends of the tail of the previous bull cycles, said the research note.
This time, the backdrop is troubled. Cryptocurrencies’ prices increased after Donald Trump won the US elections in November after conducting a pro-Crypto campaign. While under the Trump administration, the sector has gained greater regulatory clarity, and the American Securities and Exchange commission (SEC) fell on a certain number of prosecution against cryptographic companies, this is not all optimistic.
Trump unveiled his reciprocal prices against almost all countries of the world last week, leading to a massive erasure of 5.4 billions of dollars from American actions in just two days. This led to the lowest level of the S&P 500 index in 11 months and at the entrance to the Nasdaq 100 in the bear market territory. Although Bitcoin has outperformed so far, what will happen after the opening bell on Monday is unclear.
Historically, a low Q1 does not always spend a conviction for BTC, show Nydig data. The assets rebounded in the half of the years he started in the red. The recent macroeconomic backdrop has seen analysts increasing recession ratings, which could test the role of BTC as “American isolation coverage”.
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