Bitcoin (BTC) Price Recovery Still Faces Macroeconomic Risks: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)

Friday’s crypto markets are a sea of ​​green, rebounding from yesterday’s sharp fall in a classic oversold rebound. But real risks remain, threatening any lasting recovery.

Bitcoin rallied to $65,000 after flirting with $60,000, with BlackRock ETF action hinting at capitulation, or dumping long-term holders at a loss, often the last gasp of the bear market. The broader market has also recovered, with XRP, SOL, ETH and other tokens regaining some balance, while the CoinDesk 20 Index has added almost 9% since midnight UTC.

Still, Bitcoin put options remain in high demand, signaling continued downside fear. This makes sense for several main reasons: First, macroeconomic risks have eased, but not disappeared. President Donald Trump signed a funding bill Tuesday to end the government shutdown, but the Department of Homeland Security’s cash is running out in eight days, meaning there could be another circus by Feb. 14.

Meanwhile, oil prices are supported on both sides of the Atlantic due to fears of escalating tensions between Iran and the United States. A spike there could worsen global inflation, triggering a flight to safety and hammering risky assets like crypto.

More importantly, the recent crash has pushed many digital asset holders and treasurers underwater. Many of them could capitulate and become marginal sellers in the market, which could limit recoveries. Additionally, confidence tends to recover only slowly after a crash, which is why recovery rallies always slow down.

These elements taken together indicate that the market may not be out of the woods yet. Stay vigilant!

Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today

What to watch

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Cryptocurrency
• Macro
  • February 6, 8:30 a.m.: Unemployment rate in Canada for January (previous 6.8%)
  • February 6, 10 a.m.: Canada Ivey PMI for January (previous 51.9)
  • Feb. 6, 10 a.m.: Preliminary estimate of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment for February (previous 56.4); Michigan inflation expectations (previous 4%)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Votes and calls on governance
  • February 6: Chainlink will host an X Spaces session on “Building with the Chainlink Runtime”.
• Unlocks
  • February 6: Hyperliquid THRESHING$33.68 to unlock 2.79% of its circulating supply worth $287.68 million.
  • February 6: BERA$0.3875 to unlock 41.7% of its circulating supply worth $26.87 million.
• Token Launches
  • February 6: MOVA (MOVA) will be listed on LBank, BingX, KuCoin, MEXC and others.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

Market movements

• BTC is up 4.55% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $66,022.00 (24 hours: -6.74%)
• ETH is up 4.14% at $1,924.90 (24 hours: -7.3%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 4.75% at 1,905.03 (24 hours: -7.49%)
• Ether CESR composite staking rate is up 39 basis points to 3.48%
• BTC funding rate is -0.0142% (-15.5862% annualized) on Binance

• The DXY is unchanged at 97.81
• Gold futures are down 0.19% at $4,880.30
• Silver futures are down 4.39% at $73.35
• The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.81% at 54,253.68
• Hang Seng closed 1.21% lower at 26,559.95
• The FTSE is up 0.01% at 10,309.76
• The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.27% at 5,941.80
• DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.20% to 48,908.72
• The S&P 500 closed down 1.23% at 6,798.40
• The Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.59% at 22,540.59
• The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 1.77% at 31,994.60
• The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.01% at 3,616.07
• The 10-year US Treasury yield is down 1.8 bps to 4.192%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% at 6,841.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.36% at 24,740.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.16% at 49,075.00

Bitcoin Statistics

• BTC dominance: 58.77% (+0.47%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02917 (0.43%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 913 EH/s
• Hash price (spot): $29.76
• Total fees: 5.59 BTC / $377,330
• CME Futures Open Interest: 115,230 BTC
• BTC valued in gold: 13.5 oz.
• Market capitalization BTC vs gold: 4.4%

Technical analysis

• The chart shows weekly Bitcoin price fluctuations in candlestick form since 2019.
• Prices are quickly approaching their 200-week average, represented by the red line.
• BTC has consistently hit bear market lows around this average, suggesting that the current pullback may be in its final stages.

Crypto Stocks

• Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Thursday at $146.12 (-13.34%), +5.97% to $154.84 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $50.23 (-8.76%), +5.40% to $52.94
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $16.84 (-16.47%), +6.35% to $17.91
• Bull (BLSH): closed at $24.90 (-8.46%), +3.98% at $25.89
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $6.73 (-18.72%), +6.39% to $7.16
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $12.06 (-14.71%), +5.14% to $12.68
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.81 (-8.27%), +1.99% to $15.11
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.27 (-19.13%), -3.33% at $7.99
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $35.23 (-12.56%), +2.24% to $36.02
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.42 (-11.96%), -1.27% at $9.30

Crypto Cash Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $106.99 (-17.12%), +6.71% at $114.17
• Strive (ASST): closed at $9.86 (-16.75%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.07 (-14.27%), +4.12% to $6.32
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.09 (-19.85%), +7.34% at $1.17
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $0.95 (-10.27%)

ETF Feed

Spot BTC ETF

• Daily net flows: -$434.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.3 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million

ETH Spot ETF

• Daily net flows: -$80.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.86 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.87 million

Source: Farside Investors

While you were sleeping

Bitcoin Back Above $65,000 After $700 Million Wipe in Asia (Coindesk): Bitcoin bounced back above $65,000 after its worst one-day drop since November 2022. Around $700 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in a matter of hours,

Stocks stagger as AI fears dominate market action (Reuters): Global markets fell as the stock market rout on Wall Street spread across the globe, with striking volatility in precious metals and cryptocurrencies as AI fears weighed on stocks.

Weak Profits Drive IREN, Amazon; Bitcoin Stocks Rebound in Premarket (CoinDesk): IREN’s earnings were weaker than expected, while Amazon missed EPS estimates and beat revenue.

Big Tech to Spend $650 Billion This Year as AI Race Intensifies (Bloomberg): The high spending projections are raising concerns about energy supplies, prices and the potential distortion of economic data, raising questions about whether businesses can afford the costs.