By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin has stabilized above $70,000. Its relative strength is remarkable considering the week’s selloff, which sent it down more than $75,000.
Most assets saw sharp declines during the period as the conflict in Iran intensified, damaging vital energy infrastructure. A warmer than expected US PPI reading in February compounded the effect.
Traditional safe havens including gold and silver also fell while Brent crude surged above $110 a barrel due to supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Fed didn’t help. While the US central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as expected, its tone became hawkish. The effects of the conflict dampened expectations for rate cuts and, in fact, the perceived odds of a rate hike rose from 8% to 24% in forecast markets.
André Dragosch, head of research for Europe at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that bitcoin sits at the intersection of two powerful and opposing forces, and the scales may already be tipping in the token’s favor.
On the one hand, rising inflation expectations are supportive, Dragosch said. Bitcoin’s bull runs have historically aligned with the expansion of the ISM manufacturing index, which has risen sharply this year, and rising inflation expectations.
“This combination of increased economic activity and inflation expectations is likely one of the main reasons why Bitcoin has recently managed to outperform other traditional assets like gold and US stocks,” he said. “Bitcoin is also generally less sensitive to interest rates than gold, which is why it has not been affected as much by rising bond yields.”
On the other hand, tightening financial conditions pose an obstacle. Bitcoin, however, may have played the role of canary in what Dragosch called the “macro coal mine.”
“Bitcoin appears to have already priced in much of this squeeze, posting a record ‘macro discount’ and anticipating the recent deterioration in forward-looking indicators,” Dragosch said.
Looking ahead, improving financial conditions will remain a key catalyst. This means the end of the Middle East conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even as developments in the crypto space show increasing adoption. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- March 20, 8:30 a.m.: Canada PPI YoY (previous 5.4%); MoM (previous 2.7%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 20: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.01
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- Lightchain AI DAO is voting on a 90-day temporary team authority proposal, which grants the core team short-term operational authority to make daily and strategic decisions. Voting closes on March 22.
- Unlocks
- March 20: LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 5.64% of its circulating supply worth $52.45 million.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.29% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $70,608.19 (24 hours: +0.69%)
- ETH is down 0.55% at $2,148.07 (24 hours: -1.14%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.34% at 2,044.85 (24 hours: unchanged)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 2 Basis Points to 2.76%
- BTC funding rate is -0.0020% (-2.1703% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is down 0.38% at 99.70
- Gold futures are up 1.58% at $4,673.60
- Silver futures are up 1.75% at $72.14
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.38% at 53,372.53
- Hang Seng closed 0.88% lower at 25,277.32
- The FTSE 100 is down 2.16% at 10,082.61
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.71% at 5,638.54
- DJIA closed Thursday down 0.44% at 46,021.43
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.27% at 6,606.49
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.28% at 22,090.69
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 1.42% at 31,854.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.22% at 3,466.80
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is up 2 basis points to 4.28%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.52% at 6,625.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.68% at 24,412.50
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.43% at 46,140.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.90% (0.18%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03043 (-0.49%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 925 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $30.68
- Total fees: 2.95 BTC / $206,875
- Open interest on CME futures: 117,190 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 15.2 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 4.72%
Technical analysis
- BTC/SPX could be showing signs of hitting bottom – with the RSI bouncing off oversold levels and the line maintaining its trend.
- The ratio is currently below the 50-week exponential moving average, implying more range-bound performance until we see a breakout above the average.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Thursday at $202.91 (+0.31%), -0.45% at $201.99 in pre-market
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $128.33 (-3.40%), -2.20% at $125.51
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.05 (-2.46%), -0.71% at $20.90
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.22 (+3.36%), -0.33% at $9.19
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $14.14 (+0.28%), +0.28% to $14.18
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.48 (+0.80%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.83 (-0.51%), -0.31% at $9.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.73 (-4.57%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): Closed at $39.10 (+0.00%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.60 (+3.45%), -0.98% at $39.21
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.24 (-1.65%), +0.54% to $138.99
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.26 (+2.24%), +0.49% to $10.31
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.68 (-2.41%), +1.04% to $7.76
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.07 (+0.00%), +1.87% to $1.09
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17 (-0.85%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: -$90.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.26 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$136.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.8 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.76 million
Source: Farside Investors
