Crypto markets were little changed on Friday, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) largely unchanged. Bitcoin has gained just 0.8% since midnight UTC and ether (ETH) has added less than 0.1%.
Crude oil prices fell below $100 on Thursday and were recently trading at $96 a barrel, with the United States apparently evaluating whether to release sanctioned Iranian oil to increase supply and reduce price pressure.
This provided a momentary boost to risk assets, with US stocks showing signs of recovery, but this trend has now reversed. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, since midnight, indicating continued market fragility.
Precious metals are now trading in lockstep with cryptocurrencies again after a fierce rally to record highs earlier this year. Gold is at $4,660 after hitting a high of $5,600 on January 29.
Positioning of derivative products
- Bitcoin open interest (OI) has stabilized at $16.9 billion, roughly mirroring last week’s $17 billion and suggesting that speculative activity has stabilized.
- Funding rates on most platforms have returned to a neutral range of 0% to 10%, with negative rates seen over the previous two days likely fueling an initial relief rally through short covering before contributing to the recent crash.
- The three-month annualized base remains at 2.8%, a sign that institutional conviction remains cautious.
- The options market reflects defensive positioning: the 24-hour call-to-put volume split has increased to 43/56.
- Risk aversion is tightening, with the one-week delta 25 bias increasing from 9% to 14%, significantly increasing the cost of downside protection.
- The term structure of implied volatility confirms a strong initial rise in backwardation, a signal that traders are preparing for an immediate, high-impact volatility event, favoring short-term hedging over medium-term stable growth expectations.
- Long-term implied volatility (IV) remains anchored near 50%,
- Data from Coinglass shows $308 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with a 63-37 split between long and short positions. BTC ($93 million), ETH ($81 million) and others ($19 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
- Binance’s liquidation heatmap shows $68,500 as the base liquidation level to watch for in the event of a price decline.
Symbolic discussion
- The altcoin market continues to show signs of optimism, even as many major cryptocurrency companies remain stuck in a tight trading range since early February.
- Quant (QNT) is up 7.5% since midnight following a one-off listing on popular trading app Robinhood, while the AI FET token has extended its rich vein of form, up 6.5%.
- CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index is currently at 46/100, down slightly but still well above February’s lows when it languished in the 20s.
- While the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is stable since midnight, the altcoin-dominated CoinDesk 80 (CD80) is up 0.3%, indicating slight outperformance.
