Alex Thorn, head of enterprise-wide research at Galaxy Digital, says 2026 could be one of the most difficult years to predict for bitcoin, even though the company maintains a bullish long-term outlook.
In a Dec. 21 article on Thorn said the comments were based on Galaxy Research’s Dec. 18 report, “26 Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi and AI Predictions for 2026,” which outlines the company’s expectations for crypto markets and institutional adoption.
At the time of writing, Thorn said the broader crypto market was already in a bearish phase, with bitcoin struggling to re-establish sustained bullish momentum. Until the asset definitively trades above the $100,000 to $105,000 range, he said, downside risk remains.
What the options markets signal
Derivatives markets highlight this uncertainty. According to Thorn, Bitcoin options pricing implies roughly equal probabilities of very different outcomes next year, with traders assigning similar odds to prices near $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026 and near $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of the year.
Options markets are widely used by institutional investors to hedge future price risk, and such wide ranges suggest that professionals are preparing for large price swings rather than a clear directional trend.
Signs of structural maturity
At the same time, Thorn pointed to signs of structural changes beneath the surface. He said Bitcoin’s long-term volatility – a measure of price fluctuation over long periods of time – was declining. He attributed part of this change to the growth of institutional strategies such as options writing and yield-generating programs, which tend to cushion extreme price movements.
This development is also visible in Bitcoin’s volatility smile, which describes how option prices vary across strike levels. Thorn said downside protection is now more expensive than upside exposure, a trend more common in mature macro assets, such as stocks or commodities, than in high-growth markets.
Why a quiet year may not matter
For Thorn, these signals help explain why a potentially limited or “boring” 2026 would not undermine Bitcoin’s long-term case. Even if prices decline or approach long-term technical levels such as the 200-week moving average, he expects institutional adoption and market maturation to continue.
Beyond short-term price action, Galaxy’s long-term conviction lies in deeper institutional integration.
In its Dec. 18 report, the company said a major asset allocation platform could integrate Bitcoin into standard model portfolios, a move that would integrate the asset into investment strategies by default rather than through discretionary trading. Such inclusion would direct persistent flows into bitcoin regardless of market cycles, reinforcing Galaxy’s view that structural adoption – rather than short-term volatility – will shape outcomes through 2027 and beyond.
Thorn believes that expanding institutional access, potential easing of monetary conditions, and demand for alternatives to fiat currencies could position bitcoin to follow the path of gold as a hedge against currency depreciation. Galaxy predicts that the flagship cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.
