Social sentiment around major currencies has deteriorated sharply in recent days, according to Santiment, with traders becoming noticeably defensive as prices continue to fall.
This type of fatigue usually appears near inflection points – not at the start of new downtrends – and the data is starting to reflect it.
“Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the second time this month. Predictably, this caused a wave of FUD and worrying posts from retail traders on social media,” the company said. “Santiment’s opinion screens now show Bitcoin with an unusually flat bull/bear ratio, Ethereum with only a slightly positive skew, and XRP sitting at one of its scariest readings all year.”
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Historically, when the retail sector goes negative on multiple large-cap assets at once, capitulation tends to follow, eliminating weak hands and resetting supply for larger players.
Onchain readings support a bottom-out outlook. Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit (NUP) ratio has fallen to 0.476, a level that historically signals short-term market lows, as noted by CoinDesk on Wednesday.
The NUP ratio has already triggered price rebounds, with bitcoin seeing double-digit gains after similar readings in several cases in 2024.
This change in mood comes as the broader market remains under pressure. The total capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell to $3.47 trillion, extending a month-long downward trend.
FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted in an email to CoinDesk that while short-term attempts to form a bottom are visible, rallies are always met with heavy selling, which is a classic signature of a mid-term correction rather than a structural break in the cycle.
Bitcoin’s fall toward $102,500 earlier (and now trading near $98,000) on Wednesday triggered a new round of realized losses among large wallets that bought around $110,000.
But on-chain data also shows that these flows are being absorbed by new entrants, with institutional positioning cautiously optimistic at the end of the year. Sygnum’s latest survey reveals that 61% of institutions plan to increase their crypto exposure ahead of planned altcoin ETF launches and regulatory developments in 2026.
Strategic flows add weight to this vision. Strategy, now one of the largest public holders of Bitcoin, accumulated 487 BTC over the past week for an average of $102,557, bringing its total reserve to 641,692 BTC.
On the Ethereum side, foreign exchange reserves fell to their lowest level since May 2024, signaling a positive medium-term trend that generally reflects accumulation rather than distribution.
The market continues to fall, but the ingredients for a reflexive rebound are accumulating: negative sentiment, heavy accumulations of long liquidations behind prices, falling FX balances and sustained institutional buying.
Retail may be in retreat, but larger players appear to be gearing up for the next step – a pattern that has historically preceded brief, sharp reversals rather than deeper capitulation.
