Research on Tigers focused on Asia set a price of courses in the quarter of $ 190,000 for Bitcoin (BTC), arguing that record world liquidity, the demand for structural FNB and new 401 access (K) give the market its strongest configuration since 2021.
The Tiger model weighs a “basic price” of $ 135,000, then the layers on multipliers for the fundamentals (+ 3.5%) and macro -wans (+ 35%) to reach forecasts of $ 190,000 – giving 67%compared to the average of $ 113,000 of this week.
The report is based on three key engines. The money mass of M2 exceeding 90 billions of dollars, ETFs and business accumulation now representing 6% of the Bitcoin supply and a regulatory green light which opened American retirement accounts in Crypto.
Trump’s decree allowing a 401 (K) exposure adds what Tiger calls “a final signal of the Bitcoin transition to basic institutional participation”. Even an allowance of 1% compared to the basin of 8.9 dollars of dollars would be equivalent to nearly $ 90 billion in demand.
The accumulation is visible. ETF collectively hold 1.3 million BTCs, while the strategy (MSTR) has more than 629,000 pieces, worth $ 71 billion. The purchase via convertible bonds has given strategy flows to structural quality. The transfer volumes are also greater, with fewer transactions but larger sizes, reflecting a pivot of retail traffic to the activity of institutional blocks.
However, the report admits that the network seems unbalanced. Daily transactions and active users remain well below last year’s summits, and detail participation has faded. New initiatives such as BTCFI are necessary to revive activity beyond institutional portfolios.
The chain gauges also flash caution. MVRV-Z, which follows the market price above what the holders were originally paid, is 2.49-an area which, in past cycles, preceded the corrections as the profits accumulate.
The Production Production ratio expected adjusted (ASOPR) is 1.019, which means that the parts sold are only slightly in profit, which suggests that traders are blocking in modest gains rather than withdrawing to the extreme.
Profit / net loss not achieved (NUPL), a measure of profit and losses not made on the network, is 0.558, indicating a healthy positioning but not yet euphoric. Together, the data suggests a hot market but not yet overexposed.
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