Bitcoin closed in September with a gain of 5.16%, its third best September ever recorded since 2013, according to Coinglass Data.
The performance comes as traders turn their attention around October, which has historically been the strongest month of the asset.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has an average of 14.4% gains in October, with a median return of 10.8%. On October 13 in this period, 10 ended with green and only three closed lower. This assessment is of October the most statistically favorable month for the assets, with gains that often come together in the second period.
Such a seasonality is a characteristic of the financial markets, the markets tending to retreat in early May before a peak in November. This is based on the conviction that the stock market markets underperform during the summer due to the drop in negotiation volumes, the reduction of institutional activity and historical yield data.
Historically, the American stock markets have shown lower performance from May to October than from November to April, which led to the strategy of becoming a seasonal play rule for certain investors.
Bitcoin also shows recurring seasonal models, often influenced by macro cycles, institutional flows and the feeling of retail. As such, the previous trading models show that the first week of October can be jerky or negative, before Strong Upsoid settled later in the month. In several years, Bitcoin has displayed two -digit overvoltages after October 15, even when the action of early prices was silent.
The backdrop this year is similar. Bitcoin mixed performances until 2025 – including prints in the spring and unequal summer trading – contrast with the resilience of the past few weeks, adding weight to the idea that September strength could be a precursor of the end of the year.
However, seasonality offers probabilities, not certainties. Macro-catalysts, from American inflation prints to changes in risk appetites, have historically shaped the rallies of October.
But with the September performance ranking near the summit and the chances of promoting bulls in October, traders will carefully monitor if history rhymes again.
