Bitcoin is trading choppyly around $66,600 as the extended holiday weekend pushes away potential buyers and gives bears greater control over price action.
With CME futures and ETF flows expected to grind to a halt during Good Friday, the market is heading into a liquidity deficit just as its most reliable source of support is already weakening.
Bitcoin’s $65,000 support is starting to look fragile as the market’s most active buyers prove to be the most macro-dependent. In a recent report, CryptoQuant data shows apparent 30-day demand at around -63,000 BTC, even as ETF and corporate purchases reach multi-month highs, while Singapore-based market maker Enflux told CoinDesk in a note that the price floor is “partly underwritten by rate cut expectations.”
ETF purchases reached around 50,000 BTC over the past 30 days, the highest since October 2025, while Strategy accumulated around 44,000 BTC over the same period. Yet overall demand remained negative, with sales from other participants overwhelming these flows.
The pressure is most visible among large holders, CryptoQuant wrote in a recent report. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC moved into net distribution, with their year-over-year change in balance falling to around negative 188,000 BTC, compared to positive 200,000 BTC at the peak of the 2024 cycle. Mid-sized holders also sharply slowed accumulation, while Coinbase Premium remained negative, signaling weak spot demand in the United States.
The result is a market in which increased institutional activity does not translate into stronger prices. As more capital moves into ETF wrappers and regulated futures markets, the price of Bitcoin is increasingly valued via macro-sensitive positioning such as hedging and allocation changes rather than large-scale spot accumulation.
This positioning is now being tested by inflation data, Enflux wrote. The ISM prices paid index jumped to 78.3 in March, its highest level since June 2022, undermining expectations of short-term rate cuts. Enflux said repricing has already started to show up in flows, with $296 million in net ETF outflows during the week of March 24 and moderate inflows in early April.
The long weekend removes a key stabilizer. With the CME shutting down and ETF creation and redemption suspended, the institutional supply that has increasingly anchored the price of Bitcoin will be largely absent, leaving trading in spot markets where selling pressure has been most persistent.
CryptoQuant said any relief bounce could face resistance between around $71,500 and $81,200, levels that have capped prior bounces in the current bear market structure.
The broader test is the April 9 U.S. inflation data. If March core PCE rises above February’s 3.1%, rate cut expectations could fade further, reinforcing bitcoin’s bearish scenario.
