Investors seeking both security and growth seem to have reached an unexpected consensus in 2025, that of bitcoin. failing to capture either trade.
That sentiment is evident in a year-to-date comparison of widely followed major assets, including stocks, gold, 10-year Treasuries, bitcoin, industrial metals such as copper and the dollar index.
Gold, a traditional safe haven and inflation hedge, rose 70% to a record high above $4,450 an ounce, well outpacing all other major assets. Copper, widely considered a barometer of global economic health, came in second with gains of 35%, according to TradingView.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 17% and 21%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury note lost 9% and bitcoin. is down 6%. The dollar index, which tracks the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against a basket of fiat currencies, fell nearly 10%.
The fact that opposite poles – gold, the ultimate hedge against fear, and copper, a key industrial anchor with ties to AI – are the two best performing while BTC, the supposed digital gold and high-end technology, is falling, suggests a shift in investor preference for tangible assets in the face of macroeconomic and political concerns and the AI boom.
Earlier this year, safe-haven demand, driven by macroeconomic and political issues and fears of devaluation of fiat currencies, coupled with the AI boom and a positive shift in the regulatory outlook under the Trump presidency, were widely cited as ultra-bullish tailwinds for BTC. But this did not materialize.
This is mainly because the crypto community is adopting BTC as digital gold rather than as an emerging technology, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.
“The emerging narrative of Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’ has failed to fully convince Wall Street investors. Many crypto narratives marketed to institutional investors now resemble stories of passive allocation, yield staking, or long-term value preservation, rather than compelling use case-driven growth themes,” Thielen told CoinDesk.
“However, there is little evidence that a new cohort of investors are actually attracted to passive exposures to cryptocurrencies, thereby limiting new capital inflows,” he added.
Investors have snapped up gold as a safe-haven asset amid growing fiscal concerns in advanced economies, political tensions over tariffs, fears of devaluation of fiat currencies and a potential threat to the independence of the Fed.
At the same time, investors have viewed BTC as high-end technology, even as the AI boom has brought a massive boon to a diverse set of assets, from obvious tech stocks to the record rally in base metals like copper.
The red metal has been propelled higher by the crossover trend of electrification, digital infrastructure and geopolitical tensions, as well as slowing supply growth, as recently noted by Geo Political Monitor.
BTC lacks sovereign supply
Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, attributed BTC’s poor performance to the lack of a sovereign offering on the cryptocurrency.
“Gold is a ‘hard asset’ for global central banks and sovereign players. As sovereigns hedge their assets against US dollar currencies, gold has been the beneficiary,” Magadini told CoinDesk. “Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a more “portable” asset allowing individuals to hedge their risk of exchange rate depreciation.”
He explained that BTC, being more speculative, has a demand base from more risk-tolerant investors, such as retail investors, hedge funds and investment companies, rather than established sovereign entities.
“At least that is the case today. Hence the big divergence in performance in 2025,” he said, adding that BTC’s next leg up requires sovereign adoption as ETF adoption, positive regulatory outlook and digital asset treasury narratives have been fully addressed.
Gold’s rise since 2023 is partly due to increased central bank purchases, particularly in Asian countries. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks purchased 254 tonnes of gold between January and October.
Building energy
While bears may view BTC’s inability to capture a safe haven and AI’s bid as a sign of inherent weakness, that’s not necessarily the case, according to Lewis Harland, portfolio manager at Re7 Capital, who said the cryptocurrency is creating energy for a big rally.
“Gold’s breakout is not a bearish signal for Bitcoin. Gold has outpaced BTC by about 26 weeks, and its consolidation last summer matches Bitcoin’s breakout today. The metal’s renewed strength reflects a market that is increasingly pricing in further currency depreciation and fiscal stress through 2026 – a backdrop that has consistently supported both assets, with Bitcoin historically responding with higher torque,” Harland said.
He added that BTC consolidation therefore creates energy rather than signaling weakness.
“The longer BTC remains stable, the more explosive the final move tends to be, positioning it to react strongly as the depreciation trade accelerates,” Harland joked.
Key takeaways for the global economy
Gold and copper are outperforming other assets, but gold’s stronger rise relative to copper signals that markets are betting on two contradictory futures simultaneously: AI-led growth (copper) and fears of systemic failure due to unsustainable fiscal debt (gold).
More importantly, gold’s outperformance reflects concern that the global financial system is outweighing the AI-driven boom.
As gold and copper hit record highs this year, the copper-to-gold ratio, a barometer of global economic health and risk sentiment, fell nearly 20% to its lowest level in more than two decades, according to data source TradingView. It’s a telling sign of a global economy in an “end-of-cycle” or “fragile expansion” environment driven by AI but weighed down by fiscal, trade and geopolitical concerns.
The most important point to remember is the flight to the tangible. When gold and copper reach record highs and the dollar index, Treasuries and stocks underperform, it means the market no longer trusts the “promises of paper (fiat) currencies” or assets that are a pure fiat liquidity play.
