By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
It’s a difficult market to trade like Bitcoin prices fluctuate greatly. After a Thursday evening drop from $123,000 to $120,000, BTC recovered to trade around $121,400, with privacy coins such as And sharply increasing. The CoinDesk 20 Index rebounded to 4,178 points from the overnight low of 4,097.
BTC volatility has increased, likely in anticipation of another Fed rate cut later this month.
“Bitcoin volatility is ready to burst. Implied volatilities on 14-, 30- and 90-day expiries have reached their highest levels over the past 30 days, indicating increased anticipation of big moves to come,” said Nick Forster, founder of decentralized exchange Derive.
Forster added that the so-called spike in volume comes as markets price in a near-certain 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month.
Polymarket bettors put the odds at 91% that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at the Oct. 28-29 meeting, even though the ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of key data. The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 4% last month.
Separately, State Street’s 2025 Digital Assets Outlook report showed that nearly 60% of institutional investors plan to increase their exposure to digital assets in the coming year, with the average exposure expected to double within three years.
Several Democratic US senators have reportedly made a counter-proposal to the market structure bill, involving a “restricted list” for DeFi protocols deemed too risky. Crypto attorney Jake Chervinsk said this could derail regulatory progress while undermining bipartisan support for the Clarity Act seen in the House in July.
Meanwhile, Chainlink has launched a Chainlink-grade RPC endpoint for the HyperEVM testnet, providing builders in the @HyperliquidX ecosystem with infrastructure for developers working on innovative solutions such as HIP-3, vaults, liquid staking tokens (LST), and one-time deployment.
In traditional markets, the dollar index continues to hover at its highest level in two months as China tightened its grip on rare earth exports, intensifying trends ahead of a planned Xi-Trump meeting in South Korea later this month. Stay vigilant!
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- October 10, 8:00 a.m.: Brazil August PPI YoY (previous 1.36%), MoM (previous -0.3%).
- October 10, 8:30 a.m.: Eastern. of the September unemployment rate in Canada. 7.2%.
- Oct. 10, 10 a.m.: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Oct. (Preliminary) Est. 54.2.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- Decentraland DAO votes to replace the DAO committee with a 3-of-5 multisig group of ecosystem representatives, moving execution-only tasks while the board retains oversight. Voting closes on October 10.
- Unlocks
- October 10: to unlock 6.57% of its circulating supply worth $26.73 million.
- October 11: to unlock 2.15% of its circulating supply worth $59.98 million.
- October 12: to unlock 16.08% of its circulating supply worth $67.7 million.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Symbolic discussion
By Olivier Knight
- The recent Chinese memecoin frenzy that saw tokens like GIGGLE, 四, and 哈基米 skyrocket on PancakeSwap V2, has abruptly died down.
- Within 24 hours, many of these assets lost more than 95% of their value, wiping out speculative gains built on media hype and social momentum.
- The crash coincided with a broader downturn in the memecoin market that Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao described as a “bloodbath,” fueled by FUD and false rumors about token listings.
- The plunge comes after Binance rolled out its “Meme Rush” platform, which is supposed to provide a structured path for tokens before being tradable on various decentralized and centralized exchanges.
- However, just like the disappearance of Solana memecoins in February after the launch of TRUMP and MELANIA, BNB channel memes appear to be following the same path to disappearance.
- Pancake Swap trading volume remained inflated to $18 billion over the past 24 hours, with a handful of newly launched tokens being bid on, although it should be noted that liquidity remains relatively low; with w
Positioning of derivative products
- Data from Coinglass shows that many BTC perpetual short positions are at risk of liquidation above $121,600. Thus, a sustained move above the said level could trigger a short squeeze, leading to a rapid rally towards record highs.
- The market is undergoing a leverage reset, with volatility eliminating excess positioning on both sides, Glassnode said. Nonetheless, overall positioning in the global BTC futures market remains high, with open interest just below the record 755,000 BTC.
- BNB, XRP, ADA, and TRX saw a decline in futures open interest (OI) over the past 24 hours, indicating capital outflows. BTC’s OI increased by 1%, while ETH only increased by 0.4%.
- The XMR market appears a bit overheated, with annualized funding rates near 60%, a sign of frenzied demand for bullish bets. Funding rates for other major tokens, including BTC and ETH, paint an optimistic picture, but nothing out of the ordinary.
- On decentralized exchange Derive, open interest for options expiring October 31 is concentrated in calls at strike prices of $128,000 and $145,000, reflecting a bullish bias. ETH options activity is also bullish, with OI focused on the $5,000 and $6,000 calls.
- On Deribit, however, the call bias for BTC and ETH remains slightly negative across multiple time frames, reflecting a bias toward protective puts. Block flows on Paradigm featured ETH puts and straddles.
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.17% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $121,389.27 (24 hours: -0.59%)
- ETH is down 0.37% at $4,323.41 (24 hours: -0.54%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.4% at 4,162.46 (24 hours: +0.02%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 1bp to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0045% (4.8968% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.24% at 99.29
- Gold futures are up 1.00% at $4,012.20
- Silver futures are up 2.45% at $48.31
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.01% at 48,088.80
- Hang Seng closed 1.73% lower at 26,290.32
- The FTSE is down 0.14% at 9,495.88
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,627.22
- DJIA closed Thursday down 0.52% at 46,358.42
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.28% at 6,735.11
- The Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 23,024.62
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 0.76% at 30,269.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.51% at 2,858.54
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 3.5 basis points at 4.113%.
- E-mini S&P 500 futures unchanged at 6,785.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.1% at 25,313.50
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.11% at 46,643.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.36% (unchanged)
- Ether/bitcoin ratio: 0.03563 (-0.75%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 997 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $51.21
- Total fees: 3.79 BTC / $462,241
- Open Interest on CME Futures: 147,025 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 30.4 ounces
- Market capitalization BTC vs gold: 8.59%
Technical analysis
- BTC dominance rate, or its share in the total market capitalization, is looking to establish a new upward trend, having increased from 57% to over 59% in two weeks.
- This increase indicates that capital is once again flowing to the market leader.
- In other words, altcoin season is still not here.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Thursday at $387 (-0.07%), -0.22% at $386.15
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $150.48 (+0.01%), -0.19% at $150.19
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $42.22 (+2.01%), +2.08% to $43.10
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $66.71 (-1.04%), +0.13% at $66.80
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $20.2 (0%), +1.53% to $20.51
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $22.28 (+1.32%), +0.4% to $22.37
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.04 (+2.91%), +1.16% to $18.25
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $20.09 (+5.85%), +4.03% to $20.90
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $57.57 (+3.95%), +3.42% at $59.54
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.67 (-1.33%), +1.08% to $29.99
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $320.29 (-3.18%), +0.53% at $322.00
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.32 (+0.43%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $16.95 (-3.53%), -1.47% at $16.70
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.85 (-4.46%), -0.44% at $6.82
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.54 (+1.6%), +11.42% at $2.83
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flow: $197.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $62.73 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.36 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: -$8.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $15.1 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.89 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
