The war only grew in size. Bitcoin briefly became smaller.
Bitcoin fell to $65,112 early Monday morning, its lowest level since the February crash, before recovering to $67,402 as Asian markets opened.
The 24-hour range from $65,112 to $67,389 reflects a market that sold off heavily following the overnight climb and found buyers near $65,000, a level that has not been tested since the opening weekend of the war five weeks ago.
Ethereum recovered 2% to $2,044, Solana gained 0.9% to $83.48 and XRP added 1.4% to $1.35. The green over 24 hours in all areas, however, masks a more difficult weekly situation. BTC is still down 1% for the week, ETH 0.9%, XRP 1.9% and SOL 3.7%. Tron is the only name in green, up 2.6% on the day and 4.6% on the week, quietly outperforming the entire complex of majors.
This time, the escalation came from several directions simultaneously. Iranian-backed Houthi forces have entered the conflict, opening a new front beyond the direct US-Israel-Iran theater. Additional US troops have arrived in the Middle East, stoking fears of a ground operation.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was considering a military operation to extract uranium from Iran, although no decision has been made. And Iran attacked two aluminum production sites in the region, driving up the price of the metal by as much as 6% and extending the war’s economic damage beyond oil and to industrial products.
Brent crude rose 2.5% to around $115 a barrel, up about 90% since the start of the year. Asian stocks fell sharply, with South Korea’s benchmark index down 3.2% due to a sell-off in technology stocks and Japan’s Nikkei down 3.4%. S&P 500 futures have pared losses and are trading roughly flat, suggesting some stabilization after the initial reaction.
The low of $65,112 is technically important. This level is within the range of the lowest level of $64,000 on February 28, the day the war began. Bitcoin spent five weeks building a pattern of higher lows with each escalation, from $64,000 to $66,000 to $68,000 to $69,400 to $70,596.
Monday’s fall below $66,000 is the first time in weeks that the bottom has gone lower rather than high. The question remains whether it will recover and reestablish the uptrend or mark the start of a breakout below the range that has held since the start of the war.
Meanwhile, the $115 oil price and the surge in aluminum following direct attacks on production facilities mean the inflationary impact extends beyond energy and into industrial supply chains. This makes the Fed’s stance even tougher and the timetable for rate cuts even further away.
