Bitcoin resilient while Trump’s “release day” disturbs markets

By James Van Stratotn (at all times and unless otherwise indicated)

The so-called Liberation Day of President Trump arrived and the markets nervously await developments on American prices. Even within the administration, the atmosphere appears far from being optimistic.

Trade Secretary Howard Lutnik is said to be in the reticle, with suggestions that he could become the scapegoat to promote too aggressive prices if the United States had to go to a recession, according to The Independent, a British online newspaper.

A recession seems likely according to the GDPNOW model of Atlanta Fed, which provides for a contraction of the first quarter of -3.7% for us real GDP. This is a spectacular revision of previous estimates: + 3.9% two months ago, + 2.3% a month ago and -1.8% two weeks ago.

While Trump has not yet disclosed which country the prices will target, an advertisement is scheduled after closing the stock market at 4 p.m.

Bitcoin (BTC), on the other hand, remains unperturbed, the business has changed the day and holding above $ 85,000. American actions finished higher on Tuesday, although the futures point slightly negative before Wednesday.

Currently, Bitcoin is 25% below its highest January 20 of $ 109,000. This places it in the middle of the performance range of “magnificent 7” technological stocks. Here is how they compare themselves to their heights of all respective time: Apple is down 17%, Microsoft 22%, Amazon 24%, Meta 25%, Google 26%, Nvidia 32%and Tesla 50%.

Cryptocurrency resilience stands out from past cycles. In 2022, the BTC dropped 75% of its peak at a minimum of $ 15,500, more than twice as much than the NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQ). This year, Bitcoin dropped by 30% against 16% for qqq – a relative withdrawal of 1.87 times. This relative performance suggests that Bitcoin has become more resistant over time, even if volatility remains a decisive line.

However, many depends on the pricing announcement and the reaction of the markets. Stay vigilant!

What to look at

• Crypto:
  • April 2, 10:00 a.m.: audience of the American Chamber of Financial Services Committee to mark various measures, including HR 2392, transparency and responsibility for stablecoin for a better (stable) (stable) Act of 2025 and HR 1919, the Anti-CBDC State Act. Livestream link.
  • April 2: Xionmarkets (Xion) will have its main launch.
  • April 5: the alleged birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.
  • April 9, 10:00 am: US House Financial Services Committee Hearing how American securities laws could be updated to take into account digital assets. Livestream link.
• Macro
  • April 2, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics publishes Industrial Production Data of February.
    • Industrial production mom is. 0.5% against prev. 0%
    • Industrial production yyoy is. 2.3% against Plan. 1.4%
  • April 2, 4:00 p.m.: The reciprocal prices of the “Liberation Day” of the Trump administration will be announced.
  • April 2, 4:30 p.m.: The governor of the Fed, Adriana D. Kugler, will deliver a discourse entitled “Inflation of expectations and development of monetary policies”. Livestream link.
  • April 3 at 12:01 p.m.: The price of 25% of the Trump administration on imported cars and certain parts announced on March 26 become effective.
  • April 3, 12:30 pm: The vice-president of the Fed, Philip N. Jefferson, will give a speech entitled “American economic perspectives and communications from the Central Bank”. Livestream link.
  • April 4, 11:25 am: The president of the Fed, Jerome H. Powell, will give a speech entitled “Economic Perspectives”. Livestream link.
• Gains (Estimates based on facts)

Token events

• Governance votes and calls
  • The DAO discusses a revised proposal to approve and finance “Bearn”, a new subdao for the construction of DEFI products, including a stable-to-return stable and a BGT liquid locker. The proposal requires $ 200,000 for audit costs and $ 1 million in locked liquidity, offering 5% of Bearn tokens to the cash flow cash.
  • Lido Dao discusses Wsteth’s restraint on Starknet as a termination point of the canonical bridge after a migration ended from the inherited token.
  • April 2, 11 p.m.: Infinity Axie to welcome the town hall inherited from Atia on the vision of the project co-founders for the next online multiplayer game to come.
  • April 2, 10 am: The graph to host an API Token conversation.
  • April 3, 9 am: Safepal, Wallet Connect and Trader to organize a live monthly community discussing monthly updates for projects.
  • April 3, 2 p.m.: Arbitrum to accommodate an X space session on real assets on arbitrum.
  • April 3, 12 noon: seamless protocol, Morpho and Gauntlet laboratories to organize an Ask Anything (AMA) session.
  • April 7, 4 p.m.: Livepeer to host a monthly community call focused on the governance, financing and strategic orientation of its chain treasure.
• Unlocking
  • April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its supply in circulation worth 104.38 million dollars.
  • April 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 3.25% of its supply in circulation worth 61.86 million dollars.
  • April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its supply in circulation worth $ 10.29 million.
  • April 9: Movement (movement) to unlock 2.04% of its food in circulation worth $ 20.10 million.
  • April 12: Aptos (Apt) to unlock 1.87% of its supply in circulation worth $ 59.94 million.
• Token lists
  • April 4: Pintu (PTU), Spartan protocol (Sparta), Derby Stars (DSRUN), Veloce (VEXT), Bob and Kryptonite (Seilor) to disarray from Bybit.

Conferences

Talk about tokens

By Shaurya Malwa

• Trump Memecoin of President Donald Trump should unlock 40 million tokens – or 20% of the supply in circulation – April 17, according to Solana Floor.
• The unlocks of tokens often lead to short-term price reductions due to the increase in supply, as we can see with other cryptocurrencies such as the Aptos (APT), which dropped by 26% in 30 days after unlocking of June 2024.
• A similar scheme could emerge for Trump, which is currently above $ 10.
• Samecoins can see higher sales pressure than public service projects because they count strongly on feeling, in this case the political brand of Trump.
• However, if the president’s political influence continues to drive media – potentially amplified by developments like Trump Media ETF – The token could see the purchase activity after unlocking.
• This means that investors who seek to bet on Trump are likely to keep an eye on his public comments and his declarations on the same specifically around the unlock date.

Positioning of derivatives

• Market stability failed to inspire optimistic positioning, leaving perpetual financing rates for major tokens, including BTC and ETH, barely positive close to annualized rate from 1% to 3%.
• Most major parts have negative cumulative volume deltas, a sign of net sales pressure, casting a doubt over the duration of market stability.
• On the deribit options market, the smiles of the volatility of the BTC have moved strongly to lower strike options, reaching the levels that we have not seen since the American regional banking crisis of March 2023, according to the data followed by Block Scholes.
• Ether options also have biases.

Market movements

• BTC is down 0.21% from 4 p.m. HE Tuesday at 85,063.12 $ (24 hours: + 1.19%)
• ETH is down 1.75% to $ 1,879.84 (24 hours: + 0.48%)
• Coindesk 20 is down 0.56% to 2,559.88 (24 hours: -0.07%)
• The CESR ether composite pace is up 7 BPS to 3.1%
• The BTC financing rate is 0.0027% (2.9685% annualized) on Binance

• Dxy is down 0.13% to 104.12
• Gold is up 1.4% to $ 3,162.70 / Oz
• The money increased by 1.79% to $ 34.77 / Oz
• Nikkei 225 closed + 0.28% to 35,725.87
• Hang Seng closed unchanged at 23,202.53
• FTSE is down 0.57% to 8,585.55
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.47% to 5,295.55
• Djia closed on Tuesday unchanged at 41,989.96
• S&P 500 closed + 0.38% to 5,633.07
• Nasdaq closed + 0.87% to 17,449.89
• The S&P / TSX composite index closed + 0.46% to 25,033.30
• S&P 40 Latin America closed + 1.44% to 2,440.93
• The 5 -year American treasure rate is down 2 BPS to 4.16%
• E-Mini S&P 500 Term contracts are down 0.3% to 5,657.50
• The term contracts on the NASDAQ-100 E-Mini are down 0.37% to 19,531.50
• E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Industrial Index In Term is down 0.24% to 42,138.00

Bitcoin statistics:

• BTC dominance: 62.68 (0.21%)
• Ethereum / Bitcoin ratio: 0.02211 (-1.16%)
• Hashrate (Mobile average at seven days): 819 EH / S
• Hashprice (spot): $ 47.62
• Total costs: 4.35 BTC / $ 366,246
• CME Futures open interest: 135 350 BTC
• BTC at the price of gold: 27.0 oz
• BTC vs Gold Market Capt: 7.66%

Technical analysis

• The graph shows the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding the leaders of the Bitcoin and Ether market.
• The value is due to a line of trend increased upwards in the stockings in August and November.
• A strong rebound in the trend line would signal a broader rally.

Cryptographic actions

• Strategy (MSTR): closed Tuesday at $ 306.02 (+ 6.16%), down 1.31% to $ 302 before the market
• Coinbase Global (room): closed at $ 174.52 (1.33%), down 0.88% to $ 172.99
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at $ 16.33 CA (+ 7.65%)
• Mara Holdings (Mara): closed at $ 11.84 (+ 2.96%), down 1.01% to $ 11.72
• Riot Platform (Riot): closed at $ 7.54 (+ 5.9%), down 1.33% to $ 7.44
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $ 8 (+ 10.5%), down 0.63% to $ 7.95
• Cleanspark (CLSK): closed at $ 7.56 (+ 12.5%), down 1.46% to $ 7.45
• Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners Etf (WGMI): closed at $ 13.67 (+ 7.05%), down 2.51% to $ 12.80
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $ 36.52 (+ 0.88%)
• Exodus movement (Exodus): closed at $ 45.63 (-0.24%), up 2.98% to $ 46.99

ETF Flows

BTC ETFS spot:

• Daily net flow: – $ 157.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: 36.11 billion dollars
• Total BTC Holdings ~ 1.12 million.

ETH ETFF SPOT

• Daily net flow: – $ 3.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $ 2.42 billion
• Total of Holdings ~ 3.41 million.

Source: Wacky investors

Nightflow

Graphic of the day

• The graph shows that technological actions have fallen into disgrace in the last four weeks.
• This helps to explain the weakness of the cryptography market.

While you slept

In ether