Bitcoin is on track for a fourth consecutive monthly decline, a rare period not seen since 2018 and 2019, when the market recorded six straight red months. There is still a full week of trading left in January, but bitcoin is down slightly for the month, hovering around $87,000.
The asset recorded negative monthly closes in October, November and December, marking a sharp correction from its all-time high in October. From peak to trough, bitcoin declined approximately 36% during this period.
Notably, even during the 2022 bear market, when bitcoin crashed from $69,000 to $15,000 amid quantitative tightening and specific crypto industry failures, it produced no more than three consecutive negative months. This historical comparison highlights how unusual the current streak would be if January also closed lower.
Short-term optimism
Despite weak spot prices, derivatives markets suggest some tentative optimism. According to Deribit data, options positioning suggests modest upside interest at the end of the month.
Bitcoin faces an options expiration on January 30, with total open interest set to expire at around $8.5 billion on Deribit. The $100,000 call option holds the highest notional value near $900 million, indicating that a significant cohort of traders are positioned for a rebound to the six-figure level. The maximum pain price for this expiration sits at almost $90,000. Maximum pain refers to the price level at which the greatest number of options contracts expire worthless, which can create a gravitational pull towards that level as expiration approaches.
