There is a 15-point peace plan on the table and Bitcoin stands at $71,000, as if the ongoing war between the United States, Israel and Iran could actually end.
Brent crude slipped 4.7% to $99.55 on Wednesday, falling below the $100 level that had held since mid-March, after Bloomberg reported that the United States had developed a 15-point plan to end the Iranian conflict and delivered it to Tehran via Pakistan. Israel’s Channel 12 reported separately that Washington was seeking a one-month ceasefire. Asian stocks jumped 1.9%. The dollar has weakened. US and European futures point to further gains.
Bitcoin was trading at $71,019, up 0.9% over the past 24 hours but still down 6.4% for the week. The weekly loss reflects the development from last week’s $75,000 high through the weekend’s 48-hour panic ultimatum and Monday’s double-header liquidation cascade.
The daily movement is calmer and more constructive, with bitcoin holding above $70,000 for the third day in a row.
“While the leading cryptocurrency did not immediately take advantage of the bullish momentum and extend its gains, simply remaining at these high levels now suggests confidence among the bulls,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, told CoinDesk in an email.
Ether (ETH) gained 1.7% to $2,164 but is down 9.2% for the week, the worst-performing major over seven days. XRP (XRP) added 0.2% to $1.42, down 8.5% for the week. Solana rose 2.5% to $91.69 but lost 3.8% for the week. BNB slipped 0.5% to $638, down 6.8%. gained 1.7% to $0.094 but remains down 7.5% for the week. Tron (TRX) was the only major green in both periods, up 0.8% daily and 4.4% weekly.
The 15-point plan constitutes the most concrete diplomatic development since the start of the war on February 28. Trump has publicly encouraged negotiations, but the structure, participants and terms remain unclear so far. The plan would include a ban on Iran obtaining nuclear weapons or enriching radioactive materials, although full details would not be disclosed.
The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, with only a small number of ships transiting through it.
Brent falling below $100 eases the inflation headwinds that have been squeezing risk assets for the past month.
Each dollar of reduction in the price of oil slightly increases the chance that the Fed will hold rather than hike, preventing the liquidity environment from deteriorating. Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the S&P is still high, but sensitivity has been asymmetric throughout the war.
Bitcoin has been roughly flat since the start of the war, but all major altcoins are down between 4% and 9% for the week. The market spent four weeks absorbing headlines, selloff cascades and oil shocks, and the net result was a range that never broke up or down.
The only question that matters this week is whether the 15-point plan will result in a real ceasefire or lead to headlines denied by Tehran within hours.
