Hello, Asia. Here’s what’s making news on the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top news stories during U.S. business hours and insight into market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see Crypto Daybook Americas from CoinDesk.
Bitcoin is hovering around 90,000 after a weekend of sharp but short-lived swings that revealed how thin year-end liquidity has become.
In a recent note, QCP writes that open interest in BTC and ETH has declined by almost half since October, meaning the market’s ability to absorb directional trades is much lower.
Meanwhile, Polymarket ratings show traders have already priced in this week’s 25 basis point cut and are looking toward a pause in January, signaling that investors are expecting a superficial easing rather than a cycle.
This combination explains why BTC remains range-bound due to a lack of market activity, and why outsized moves are more likely to come from guidance surprises than the rate decision itself.
“The Fed’s rate cut may be grabbing the headlines, but the bigger change is the widening gap in policy signals from major central banks. The BoE is divided, the ECB is holding firm, and the BOJ is preparing to tighten yields to yield levels last seen in 2007, all amid growing friction between major Asian economies,” Gracie Lin, CEO of OKX Singapore, said in an interview with CoinDesk.
Lin added that the recent clearing of leveraged positions has improved market structure by removing crowded trades, giving prices room to maneuver without forced flows. With this reset, she said Bitcoin was capable of heading back towards 91,000 as global capital adjusts to an uneven set of macro signals.
All of this sets the stage for a market where direction will depend on how traders interpret the Fed’s guidance and the broader political divide rather than the rate move that everyone has already priced in.
Market movement:
BTC: Bitcoin slipped to $90,000 on Monday after early U.S. trading erased a brief weekend rally, leaving the market stuck in a tight range as rising bond yields and slowing stocks put pressure on risk assets.
ETFs: Ether fell slightly alongside the broader market, but continued to outperform on a relative basis and briefly touched its highest level against Bitcoin in over a month.
Gold: Gold edged lower on Monday as traders remained cautious ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting, with markets pricing in a high likelihood of a rate cut and awaiting guidance from Powell on future moves.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks fell Tuesday, tracking Wall Street’s decline, as investors remained cautious ahead of a widely expected 25 basis point Fed rate cut and awaiting guidance on the central bank’s next steps.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- 40% of Canadian Crypto Users Reported for Risk of Tax Evasion, Canadian Tax Authority Reveals (CoinDesk)
- Ondo Finance Says Biden-Era SEC Investigation Closed Without Fees (Decrypt)
