The Wall Street Citi (C) bank has refined its cryptographic evaluation models to reflect the evolutionary dynamic of the digital asset market, producing a new end -of -year forecast which places Bitcoin (BTC) at $ 135,000 in its basic case.
In the most optimistic scenario of the bank, the largest cryptocurrency could increase to $ 199,000 by the end of the year, while a more lower perspective, largely by weakness of weak actions, reduces forecasts to $ 64,000.
The updated prospects incorporate a trio of key engines: adoption of users, macroeconomic conditions and requests funds (ETF) negotiated on cash, the bank said in a report on Thursday.
The heart of Citi’s approach begins with an adoption model based on user activity. Bank analysts have planned a 20% increase in user growth, as well as linear network effects. In itself, this would support a price of around $ 75,000.
From there, the macroeconomic factors subtract approximately $ 3,200, led by equity and gold performance, while a $ 15 billion in additional ETF flows add about $ 63,000 to forecasts. The result: an end -of -year basic year -basic objective of $ 135,000.
FNB entries have become a central force to shape the action of bitcoin prices since the approval of American spot products in January 2024. Citi estimates that these flows alone now represent more than 40% of the recent variation in the BTC prices, which gives them a disproportionate role in its new model.
Although the adoption curve still serves as anchor, the growing integration of crypto into traditional finance through ETFs, index inclusion and greater regulatory acceptance, means that macro and institutional flows increase significantly, depending on the report.
Citi analysts note that the risk for their forecasts is tilted upwards. ETF demand accelerated faster than expected, and user activity shows a slower than model disintegration rate, which suggests that the effects of the network can persist longer than initially.
Bitcoin trajectory now depends as much on capital allowance strategies and investor flows as on technological adoption, according to the report.
Read more: Crypto entries push $ 60 billion for the start of the year, going beyond the investment capital: JPMorgan
