Gold is hitting new highs while bitcoin struggles to hold key levels, reopening a debate that crypto investors have never fully settled. If Bitcoin is supposed to be digital gold, this is the kind of band it’s supposed to gain. For the moment, this is not the case.
The question is increasingly being asked because gold is rallying on expectations of lower rates and geopolitical risk, while bitcoin is struggling to hold key psychological levels and remains susceptible to the same forces that tend to hit stocks and other risky assets.
Gold is up more than 70% this year, while the other precious metal, silver, is up about 150%, putting them on track for their strongest annual gains since 1979.
Platinum also hit record highs, extending a broader rally among precious metals as investors return to the category as a hedge against geopolitical volatility and long-term currency risk.
Part of what holds Bitcoin back is positioning. The market is still digesting a long period of leverage-based trading, and each bounce has been offset by rapid profit-taking over the past week.
The macro is another obstacle. Even when traders expect rate cuts, Bitcoin tends to need clear conditions for taking risks, not just looser policy. Bond yields have been volatile, the dollar has collapsed, and markets have repeatedly turned to a “capital preservation” attitude. This usually helps gold first.
David Miller, chief investment officer at Catalyst Funds and portfolio manager of the Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF, said the divergence is hard to ignore.
“Gold had a record year, up over 60%. But so did bitcoin. You still have this situation where it’s clearly not digital gold,” Miller said, adding that “gold can have a record year while bitcoin is down in the same year.”
Miller said bitcoin can still make sense in long-term portfolios, including as a hedge against fiscal expansion and currency depreciation. But he argued that gold still plays a different role because it is already treated as a reserve asset by central banks.
“What gold certainly cannot do is serve as a true alternative reserve asset to a currency,” Miller said. “Bitcoin is really a retail play, whereas gold is very institutional.”
Data from the World Gold Council shows that holdings of gold-backed ETFs have increased in every month this year except May, indicating a steady accumulation rather than a short-lived trading boom. Holdings in State Street’s SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, are up more than 20% in 2025.
Several Wall Street banks also posted bullish outlooks for next year. Goldman Sachs predicts prices could reach $4,900 an ounce in 2026 under its base case scenario, with higher risks.
