Where bitcoin trades from here: Expect patience before the next higher step.
- Hougan expects bitcoin to trade sideways between around $75,000 and $100,000 during the first half of the year.
- “There is still plenty of Bitcoin for sale around $100,000,” he said, highlighting positioning in the options market.
- A breakout is more likely later in the year as regulatory clarity improves and macroeconomic risks are digested.
Why precious metals are important: Gold’s rally strengthens Bitcoin’s long-term case.
- Hougan said gold’s rise reflects global concerns about fiat currencies and the risk of asset seizures.
- Silver, he added, looks like late-stage momentum trading, similar to a speculative altcoin rally.
- Over time, he expects this dynamic to channel demand toward bitcoin as a superior form of custody and settlement.
Central banks go around in circles, slowly: Interest is growing, but adoption will take years.
- Hougan said Bitwise has already held meetings with central banks in several regions.
- These institutions are still asking fundamental questions about the security and risks of Bitcoin, not the details of its implementation.
- He expects central banks will eventually own bitcoin – potentially more than gold – but said the time frame was likely 10 to 20 years.
The $6.5 million Bitcoin appeal: A long-term bet on monetary reality.
- Hougan reiterated his view that bitcoin could reach around $6.5 million per coin over the next 20 years.
- The central assumption, he said, is not an acceleration of adoption but continued growth in global debt, money printing and currency depreciation.
- He argued that bitcoin is a superior version of gold and that central banks are only beginning to understand its role.
- “As long as the future is not radically different from the last 15 years,” Hougan said, “we will get there. It’s just a matter of time.”
Zoom out: Volatility compression is essential for institutions.
- Hougan said bitcoin’s declining volatility is key to institutional adoption.
- He often tells dispatchers that Bitcoin is now less volatile than Nvidia, a stock many already own.
- Bitwise expects volatility to continue to decline while bitcoin remains the fastest growing major financial asset.
Final take: Short-term break, long-term conviction.
- Hougan said regulatory clarity in Washington could accelerate the next bullish phase, but is not necessary for crypto’s long-term trajectory.
- Even without clarity, he expects ETFs, stablecoins and tokenization to continue to grow.
- “The fundamentals are really good,” he said. “The stars are aligned for a happy 2026.”
Watch the full interview.
