By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Risk-averse sentiment has strengthened in Asian exchanges as the price of Bitcoin has risen. briefly fell below $90,000 for the first time in seven months before stabilizing near $91,000, a 24-hour decline of 4.5%.
While major alternative cryptocurrencies like BNB and GROUND also fell, they outperformed the largest cryptocurrency. Most of the top 100 coins are in the red, with a few exceptions like ASTER, HYPE, KYPE and ICP.
Some experts attribute BTC’s double-digit monthly decline primarily to diminished expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December.
“The probability of a decline has fallen from around 70% to 42% in just about a week, amplified by the absence of further macro data,” said market maker Wintermute. “[Fed Chair Jerome] Powell revisiting December’s almost certain decline forced investors to examine the individual preferences of FOMC members, revealing that the decline was far from consensus. The response was immediate: US risk assets weakened and cryptocurrencies, the most sentiment-sensitive risk asset, were hit hardest. »
But there is a glimmer of hope. Data from ING shows that open interest in bullish options on U.S. Treasury bonds has increased recently, a sign that traders are betting on higher prices and lower yields.
This stance suggests they are anticipating weaker US economic data to revive hopes for a quicker Fed rate cut. ING pointed out that with only 15 basis points forecast for a cut in December, there is significant room for initial rates to spread on the dollar. In other words, there is a risk of further dollar weakness.
For Bitcoin bulls beaten down this month, this outlook could signal a turning point. Falling yields and a weak dollar have historically provided fertile ground for a crypto rebound. The key question remains: When will this dovish revaluation of Treasuries spill over into risk assets, helping Bitcoin and the broader crypto market return to balance?
For now, the U.S. Dollar Index remains firm, poised to extend Monday’s rebound from 99.00 and potentially retest the August 1 high at 100.25, a level that acted as resistance earlier this month. His approach and interaction with this key level will be crucial to watch. A sharp break above 100.25 could increase pressure on risk assets. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- November 18, 8:15 a.m.: ADP Employment Change Weekly (previous -11.25K).
- November 18: 10:30 a.m.: speech by Fed Governor Michael S. Barr on “banking supervision.” Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- November 18: KULR Technology (KULR), post-market, N/A.
- November 18: Solana Company (HSDT), post-market, N/A.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and governance calls
- The Render community (RENDER) is voting on whether to expand its compute program to include enterprise-grade GPUs (like the H100/H200). Voting closes on November 18.
- hosts conference call with analysts on latest developments in project governance and economics at 9 a.m.
- hosts analyst call to cover roadmap and fundamentals at 10:30 a.m.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- listings on Coinbase with the TON/USD pair.
- lists on OKX with the ZEN/USDS pair.
- Datagram Network (DGRAM) lists on Bitget with the DGRAM/USDT pair.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.48% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $91,437.01 (24 hours: -4.32%)
- ETH is up 1.85% at $3,061.45 (24 hours: -4.18%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.5% at 2,963.20 (24h: -3.93%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 8 Basis Points to 2.91%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0084% (9.1761% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is unchanged at 99.60
- Gold futures are down 0.86% at $4,039.30
- Silver futures are down 0.96% at $50.22
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.22% at 48,702.98
- Hang Seng closed 1.72% lower at 25,930.03
- The FTSE is down 1.05% at 9,573.79
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.33% at 5,565.93
- DJIA closed Monday down 1.18% at 46,590.24
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.92% at 6,672.41
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.84% at 22,708.07
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 0.83% at 30,076.21
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.78% at 3,087.59
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 2.3 basis points at 4.11%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% at 6,672.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.32% at 24,798.75
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.32% at 46,514.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.96% (-0.8%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03351 (1.96%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,103 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $37.94
- Total fees: 4.48 BTC / $420,601
- Open interest on CME futures: 136,705 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 22.7 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 6.13%
Technical analysis
- The VIX index, which tracks 30-day implied volatility for the S&P 500, is breaking out of an extended range, suggesting it may be time to be a volatility bull on Wall Street.
- The increasing volatility in stocks could spill over into crypto, further amplifying the already high volatility environment.
- It remains to be seen whether the breakout will continue or stop, as was the case last month.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Monday at $263.95 (-7.06%), -0.37% at $262.97 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $76.59 (-6.47%), +0.25% to $76.78
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $25.04 (-4.94%), -1.36% at $24.70
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.75 (-4.5%), -0.14% at $36.70
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.51 (-4%), -0.52% at $11.45
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $13.88 (-0.5%), -0.5% at $13.81
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.79 (-0.94%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.61 (-3.19%), -0.66% at $10.54
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $40.92 (+0.94%), unchanged in pre-market
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $17.3 (-4.68%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $195.42 (-2.17%), -0.61% at $194.22
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $20.02 (-8.25%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.29 (-5.51%), -0.29% at $10.26
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.60 (-13.21%), -0.19% at $2.59
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.90 (-5.94%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: -$254.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $58.58 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$182.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.97 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.34 million
Source: Farside Investors
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