The Crypto analyst and macroeconomics Alex Krüger thinks that the market seems ugly enough to become bullish.
On Saturday, Krüger wrote on X, that “most crypto records now look so broken and broken that it is optimistic”. He argued that when the action of prices looks so bad, panic generally went far enough for a reversal not far behind.
The graphics lower
Krüger has attached a series of graphics from Binance and derivative dashboards.
They understood Bitcoin and ether (Eth) Punctual price graphics, which had both fallen below the short -term trend lines, creating a technically down image. He also posted a Solana Graphic that has shown relative resilience compared to BTC and ETH.
In addition to these, he shared BTC-USDT and ETH-USDT derivative graphics, which combined trial indicators-such as financing rates and long liquidations-with options like SKEW. Together, they showed that traders had become strongly defensive.
Liquidations and resetting the lever effect
In his post, Krüger said that long liquidations had been “important”, especially in “the last two laps after the closing today”.
In the term markets, merchants can borrow to take up bruises. When prices drop, their warranty is wiped out and exchange positions closed automatically. This type of forced sale lowers prices in a waterfall. Once the end, the markets can stabilize because the excess lever effect has already been eliminated.
Pressure majors, stable alts
The analyst also stressed that Bitcoin and Ether absorbed most of the sale, while many altcoins had already stopped crashing earlier in the day. Normally, smaller tokens collapse after the majors, not in front of them.
For Krüger, this divergence is “often a sign of strength to come”, which suggests that the sale of panic can end.
Krüger told subscribers to “check the bias”, noting that the points were much more expensive than the calls. In the options of options, this imbalance signals defensive positioning and increased fear.
For opposites like Krüger, unilateral fear often precedes a rebound, because if everyone is already hiding, there are fewer sellers to lower prices.
The FOMC catalyst
Although he was “optimistic in next week”, Krüger said he did not expect strong trends to develop until the next political meeting of the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on September 16 to 17, with a decision and press decision at the conclusion of September 17.
It expects the Fed to reduce interest rates, which supports “is not entirely evaluated”.
Lower rates reduce the cost of the loan and often add liquidity, which can increase the demand for risk assets such as crypto.
The view of the cycle
Krüger stressed that this is not the end of the cycle, even if prices drop further in the short term. At the same time, he does not expect the kind of euphoric “blowing” top to marked the cryptographic bull markets.
The only exception, he said, could be soil, which continues to attract new decentralized treasury bills deployment of capital to the network.
For Krüger, the configuration is simple: the graphs seem ugly, the liquidations are late, the options tariffing the cries of fear and the decision of the Fed is looming. His message was simple – the moment to bet on the rise, it is when panic is the noisiest, not when the celebrations begin.
